Fuel prices will rise, in recent days the refinery’s wholesale price lists have been dominated by increases, analysts of the e-petrol.pl portal reported. Reflex experts are of a similar opinion, according to whom the lack of increases at stations so far is the result of a decrease in the retail margin.
“Our forecast for the retail fuel market for the coming week assumes increases. The expected price ranges for individual fuel types are as follows: PLN 6.62-6.64/l for 95-octane petrol, PLN 7.61-7.73/l for diesel and 3.10-3.19 PLN/l for autogas” – analysts of the e-petrol.pl portal informed on Friday.
Fuel prices at stations – January 2023
They pointed out that in recent days the refinery’s wholesale price lists were dominated by increases, which fueled the rising prices of raw material on global stock exchanges. Over the course of a week, 95-octane petrol went up by PLN 140.40 and a cubic meter of this fuel costs PLN 5,312.40 today.
“This is the highest price recorded this year. The price of diesel oil increased slightly in the official price lists of the refinery from the previous Friday by PLN 116, and the average wholesale price of diesel today is PLN 6,186.00 per cubic meter,” the analysts said.
They added that the passing week brought retail cuts fuel pricesthanks to which we will refuel diesel at the cheapest rate from October 2022.
According to data from e-petrol.pl, diesel oil became cheaper by PLN 0.5, the current price of PLN 7.63 per liter being the lowest since the beginning of October last year. “The price of 95-octane petrol, which costs PLN 6.54/l on average, has fallen by two pennies. Only drivers of cars with autogas installations pay more. The price of LPG at stations has increased by a penny this week and amounts to PLN 3.14/l” – given.
However, discounts at stations will not last long and it is worth filling the tank to the full now, because fuel prices may increase in the second half of January. In three weeks, the EU ban on imports of fuels from Russia. Europe is reorganizing the directions of supply of petroleum products, but such a change comes at a price. It will be paid by drivers, who are also not favored by the price of oil rising for the second week in a row.
How do fuel prices change?
BM Refleks analysts reported that “currently, the average prices at stations are as follows: unleaded petrol PLN 95 – PLN 6.54/l (bz), unleaded petrol PLN 98 – PLN 7.26/l (-4 PLN/l), diesel oil PLN 7, PLN 63/l (as long as required), autogas PLN 3.16/l (+0.2 PLN/l).
They pointed out that the analysis of average fuel prices confirms a relatively stable situation on the domestic retail market. “This does not mean, however, that fuel prices do not change at all. There are stations where we pay more than a week ago, but also those where it is cheaper” – they added.
“While fuel prices on the wholesale market have been increasing almost since the beginning of the year, the lack of increases at stations is the result of a decrease in the retail margin,” analysts assessed, noting that if the increase in fuel prices on the wholesale market continues, the likelihood of a return of increases at stations will increase. .
As noted by Refleks analysts, fuel prices at stations are still higher than a year ago.
“Compared to all fuels, the comparison of the price of LPG, which is about 2% more expensive, is the most favorable, and the worst is diesel, which in turn is as much as 30% more expensive. For Pb95 and 98 petrol we pay 13% and 20% more than a year ago,” they said.
According to e-petrol analysts, this week’s observers could certainly be surprised by the announcement of stock results by the American Energy Information Administration.
Crude oil reserves increased by 8.4 million barrels during the week to around 448 million, according to Reuters, the most since June 2021. Analysts thought they would fall by 593,000 barrels. In the case of gasoline, an increase of about 3.5 million barrels, while analysts’ expectations were for an increase of 2.5 million barrels. Diesel and heating oil reserves fell by 1.9 million barrels over the past week,” e-eptrol.pl pointed out.
Analysts have pointed out that the last few days are also a time when the effects of a nationwide strike against the pension reform in France – “The result is, among others, the suspension of supplies from refineries belonging to TotalEnergies and Esso.”
“Next week there will be another two-day strike and a 72-hour strike will take place on February 6. There will also be strikes in Italy and will take place on January 25 and 26 and will cover both motorway and regular road stations. The background to the strike in Italy are tax issues and allegations of overpricing.
They also reminded that in recent days an “important forecast” was announced by the International Energy Agency, which assessed the prospects for supply and demand in the beginning of the year.
“According to the agency, they will be responsible for almost half of the increase in global demand for oil China. The lifting of lockdowns related to COVID-19 may help with this. We owe the main increase in oil supply to the United States. The output of the OPEC+ group of producers will decrease by 870 thousand tons. barrels of crude oil per day, and in 2023 the Agency expects extraction in the USA at the level of 12.41 million barrels per day, e-petrol.pl analysts reported.
More expensive oil
Reflex indicated that Brent crude oil is up by about $2 on a weekly basis. per barrel. On Friday, the prices of the March series of Brent crude contracts remained in the region of $86.70. per barrel.
“The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an increase in global oil consumption this year by 1.9 million barrels per day to 101.7 million barrels per day, of which 0.84 million barrels per day will be generated by China alone. According to the IEA, it is China and Russia will be of particular importance this year for the global oil market.
Analysts stressed that in December the production of OPEC+ (19 producers subject to limits) was nearly 1.8 million barrels per day below the agreed limit of 40.1 million barrels per day.
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