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Fuel prices at stations (petrol, diesel, autogas). Forecasts – long weekend, June 2023

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7 groszy more for diesel, the price of 95-octane petrol as a week ago – these are the forecasts for the long weekend of e-petrol analysts. In their opinion, in the coming days there should be no major changes in prices at petrol stations. Reflex analysts said that “YoY, fuel bills will be 18-20 percent lower.”

According to the summary of average retail prices, diesel oil has noticeably increased compared to the average of the previous week. It costs 6.17 PLN/l, 7 groszy more.

The cost of refueling with 95-octane petrol remains the same as a week ago – PLN 6.52 per liter. The price of autogas, which is sold on average at PLN 2.92 per liter, has fallen, i.e. PLN 0.3 cheaper than last Wednesday, e-petrol analysts reported.

Fuel prices at stations

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They said this week the cheapest way to refuel a car is in the Opolskie Voivodeship – Pb95 petrol costs PLN 6.37/l, and diesel PLN 6.10/l. Highest averages gasoline prices are in this week Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship (PLN 6.57/l). The most expensive diesel is in Lower Silesia and Mazoviawhere it costs PLN 6.21/l. The lowest average price of autogas is PLN 2.82 per liter in the Śląskie Voivodship. A liter of this fuel in Western Pomerania is on average PLN 0.25 more expensive.

Analysts said refining prices were slightly above the weekend averages. 98-octane petrol costs PLN 5,513/m3, which is over PLN 27 more than on Saturday, and Pb95 went up by PLN 16 to PLN 5,152/m3. Diesel went up by almost PLN 35 to the level of PLN 4,946/m3, and heating oil costs an average of PLN 3,994/m3, which is almost PLN 29 more than on Saturday.

E-petrol experts predict that next week there will be no major price changes at petrol stations. Pb98 gasoline will be in the range of PLN 7.05-7.17/l, and its 95-octane variant will cost PLN 6.46-6.57/l. In the case of average diesel prices, analysts predict prices in the range of PLN 6.13-6.24 per liter. According to analysts, low volatility will also apply to LPG – the price of this fuel at most stations will be in the range of PLN 2.90-2.98 per liter.

How have fuel prices changed over the years?

Reflex experts pointed out that “on a year-over-year basis, refueling bills will be lower by 18 – 20 percent depending on the type of fuel”. “Diesel oil decreased the most in the year by 20 percent, i.e. PLN 1.53/l. 95 and 98 petrol are cheaper by PLN 1.46 and 1.43/l, respectively, and autogas by PLN 0.67/l ” – they wrote in the comment.

“Although the OPEC+ decision from Monday caused increases in raw material prices, it did not have time to translate into the domestic fuel market. A further increase in fuel prices on the ARA market may, however, translate into fuel price increases in the country in the second half of June, i.e. at the beginning of the summer holidays” – the analysts indicated.

Situation on the crude oil market

“The oil market reacted with moderate increases to the OPEC+ decision over the weekend. On Wednesday morning, the prices of the August series of Brent oil contracts remained at around USD 77/bbl. Russian Urals FOB Rotterdam oil costs around USD 56/bbl,” we read in Refleks’ commentary.

Analysts pointed out that “Saudi Arabia from July, it will reduce crude oil production by an additional 1 million bbl/d to 9 million bbl/d.”

“Limits for other OPEC+ countries are to be maintained until the end of 2024, and not until the end of this year, as planned in April. For the United Arab Emirates, the production limit will be increased next year by 0.2 million bbl/d. The net effect of the decision OPEC+ means a further reduction of oil supply by 0.8 million bbl/d. The actual implementation of these announcements will now be crucial for the market. The next OPEC+ meeting at the ministerial level is scheduled for November 26, experts wrote.

They added that “the U.S. EIA estimates that the recent OPEC+ decision will lead to a slight decline in global crude oil inventories over the next five quarters.”

“The EIA forecasts the average price of Brent crude oil in the second half of this year at USD 79/bbl and USD 84/bbl in 2024. Forecasts for 2024 were revised upwards by USD 10/bbl. Global fuel consumption will increase by 1.6 million bbl/d this year and 1.7 million bbl/d next year, Reflex reported.

Main photo source: gme_stuff / Shutterstock.com

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