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Fuel prices. Drivers are reaching deeper and deeper into their pockets

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Fuel prices at stations are the highest since August 2024, Reflex analysts report. As they claim, we will expect further increases in the near future due to rising oil prices. How much will we pay for a liter of petrol and diesel?

According to Refleks data published on Friday, PLN 6.25/l and PLN 6.43/l are the current average retail prices of EU95 petrol and diesel oil, respectively.. “They are the highest since August 2024. During the week, the price of Pb95 petrol increased by PLN 14/l and diesel by PLN 18/l,” analysts said. They added that the average retail price of autogas increased by PLN 0.6/l during this time to the average level of PLN 3.28/l.

“Mediocre the price level of Pb95 petrol and diesel in Poland may increase by 10-15 gr/l” – analysts predict. In their opinion, this is the result of increasingly expensive crude oil.

US sanctions drive up prices

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As they reported, on Friday morning Brent crude oil cost approximately USD 81. per barrel. “In total, since December 19, when the US extended sanctions on tankers transporting Iranian crude oil, prices have increased by nearly $10 per barrel,” they noted. They pointed out that the market is currently considering the real impact of the recent sanctions USA and Great Britain, mainly targeting the Russian oil and energy sectors.

Analysts added that another 183 vessels were on the blacklist, over 160 of which were tankers carrying Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil. They also referred to S&P Global data, according to which in 2024 they transported on average about 1.6 million barrels per day of crude oil and 0.2 million barrels per day of petroleum products, including about 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil, most of which reached Asian markets China and India.

“This represented approximately 24 percent of Russia's total exports of crude oil and petroleum products and more than 40 percent of Russian crude oil exports by sea,” analysts said, adding that the number of units listed by the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has increased up to 456 tankers and 18 gas carriers for transporting LPG.

“Systematic decline” in oil prices

As reported by Refleks analysts, the American EIA expects a “systematic decline” in crude oil prices in the next two years.

In 2025, average Brent crude oil price is expected to be USD 74. per barrel (compared to $84 per barrel in 2024). In 2026, it is expected to drop to $66. per barrel. “The main reason for the drop in prices is the forecasted higher growth rate of supply (quantity on the market – ed.) of crude oil than consumption (ed.),” analysts said.

They also announced that in 2025, global fuel supply is to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day, and in 2026 by 1.5 million barrels per day. The forecast growth rate of consumption is 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.1 million barrels per day, respectively.

Global crude oil stocks are expected to decline by 0.5 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year alone. In the next three quarters of 2025, EIA expects global crude oil stocks to increase at a rate of 0.5 million barrels per day. In 2026, the growth rate of global oil reserves is expected to accelerate to 0.74 million barrels per day.

Main photo source: Shutterstock



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