Today at 10:00 the CSO will release the so-called flash estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021. GDP growth in 2017 Q3. will be between 4.6 and 5.7 percent. – indicate the economists interviewed by PAP. Throughout the year – according to the economists of Alior Bank and Pekao – GDP growth will amount to 5%, and according to PKO BP it will be 5.4%. In the previous quarter, this increase was 11.1 percent, but this was due to the “base effect”, i.e. the economic situation from April to June in 2020, i.e. at the beginning of the pandemic in Poland.
On Friday, the Central Statistical Office will publish the so-called quick estimate of GDP growth in Q3 2021. In Q2, according to the preliminary estimate of the Central Statistical Office, GDP increased by 11.1 percent year to year. However, the result of Q2 was largely influenced by the so-called base effect, ie a strong decline in GDP in Q2 2020. According to the economists interviewed by PAP, in Q3 the pace of economic growth will be lower.
GDP for Q3 – analysts’ forecasts
“We expect GDP growth in Q3 at 4.6%. The main driver will be consumption, which, according to our estimates, increased by 5%. We had no lockdowns that would negatively affect consumer spending, the labor market was strong, so we expect strong consumption. Another factor driving GDP growth in the last quarter in y / y terms was investments, we expect them to increase by 6.4%. ” – said the chief economist of Alior Bank Agata Filipowicz-Rybicka.
She added that although investments are uncertain, because in the previous quarter they turned out to be lower than expected, and higher in the previous quarter, large companies show both good financial results and an increase in investment outlays, hence the expectation that the entire economy continues to recover.
In her opinion, a certain limitation for the GDP growth rate are problems with the supply of raw materials and components, which translate into the availability of products for consumers.
Trade, industry and consumption – as factors of GDP growth
Bank Pekao economist Adam Antoniak said that the bank’s GDP forecast for Q3 is 4.7 percent. “We know the economy was doing well, trade was doing well and so was the industry which showed a solid result despite the apparent supply chain problems,” he pointed out.
He stated that taking into account the consensus of market forecasts, according to which GDP growth in Q3 amounted to 4.8%, there was a chance for an even better result.
“We expect GDP growth in Q3 to be 5.7%. Our forecasts for consumption and investment growth do not differ from the market average, but we estimate the impact of net exports and inventories on economic growth slightly differently. We believe, for example, that companies tried to increase their inventories in a situation where there was a risk of shortages or an increase in supply problems, ”said the PKO BP economist Urszula Kryńska.
She added that according to PKO BP, services, which recorded a clear recovery in this period, had a clear impact on GDP growth in Q3.
Throughout the year – according to the economists of Alior Bank and Pekao – GDP growth will amount to 5%, and in the opinion of PKO BP it will be 5.4%.
Economy – EC forecasts
The European Commission, in its forecasts presented on Thursday, expects economic growth in Poland to remain strong in 2021-2023. Rising household incomes, a gradual decline in the savings rate and the support of personal income in the form of tax changes are likely to increase private consumption in 2022 and, to a lesser extent, also in 2023.
Among the risk factors for the Polish economy, the European Commission lists stronger than currently forecasted inflation, as well as a sudden increase in COVID-19 cases, especially taking into account the relatively low vaccination rate in Poland.
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