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GDP, inflation, interest rates – forecast for 2023-2025. Results of the NBP macroeconomic survey

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Inflation throughout 2023 will be between 11.6 and 13.3 percent, with the central forecast of 12.4 percent, according to a macroeconomic survey of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) conducted among professional forecasters. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow between 0.3 and 1.6 percent this year, with the central forecast at 0.9 percent.

On Friday, the National Bank of Poland published the results of the June round of the Macroeconomic Survey, which was conducted among professional forecasters.

Inflation in Poland – forecast

It shows that this year inflation the annual average will be between 11.6 percent. and 13.3 percent, with the central forecast of 12.4 percent.

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“In the next two years, according to the expectations of AM NBP experts, the average annual inflation will decrease. Typical scenarios determined on the basis of the aggregate distribution predict inflation in 2024 between 5.4% and 8.9%, and in 2025 – between 2.9 percent and 6.7 percent. The central forecasts for these years are 6.9 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.” – informed the National Bank of Poland in the information on the results of the survey.

Average annual CPI inflation in 2023-2025 – results of the NBP macroeconomic surveyNBP

Forecast for the Polish economy

The bank also indicated that, according to the results of the survey, an increase GDP in this year will be between 0.3 per cent. and 1.6 percent, with the central forecast of 0.9 percent.

“The probability of a recession in 2023, determined on the basis of the aggregated distribution, is relatively low (17%),” the NBP said in the survey results.

“(…) in 2024 and 2025, AM NBP experts expect a faster rate of economic growth than in the current year. According to these scenarios, in 2024 a GDP growth of between 1.5% and 3.8% can be expected. , and in 2025 – between 1.9 percent and 4.4 percent. The central forecasts for these years are 2.7 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” – reported NBP.

The bank also indicated that the probability of a recession in these years is below 10 percent.

Average annual GDP growth rate in 2023-2025 – results of the NBP macroeconomic surveyNBP

The survey shows that the central forecast of the NBP reference rate for the current year is 6.72 percent, with the range of forecasts between 6.6 percent and 6.6 percent. and 6.81 percent.

“Typical scenarios of the NBP reference rate for the next two years are in clearly wider ranges, i.e. between 5.04% and 6.54% for 2024, and for 2025 – between 3.43% and 5% In turn, the central forecasts for these years are equal to 5.78 percent and 4.51 percent, respectively.” – reported NBP.

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