Germany, collapse of the ruling coalition. What's next? Analysis

After the collapse of the government coalition Germanya key country in the European Union, are in a deep impasse. Disintegration of the three-party government coalition SPD/Greens/FDP Chancellor Olaf Scholz is a fact less than a year before the end of his term.

On Thursday, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier handed the act of dismissal to Christian Lindner – the Minister of Finance, dismissed by the Chancellor the day before. Two other FDP ministers also resigned – justice Marco Buschmann and education Bettina Stark-Watzinger.

Scholz lost his majority in parliament and his government became a minority government. The Chancellor announced that before submitting a motion of confidence in parliament on January 15, which is a condition for calling early elections, he intends to push through several outstanding bills in the Bundestag, including the pension reform and asylum law, as well as the tax law.

READ also: Resignation in the German government. Politico: the coalition has fallen apart

According to Scholz's plan, the elections would not be held until March. This plan, however, has one weak side: not having a majority, the chancellor is forced to support the largest opposition club, the CDU/CSU, in parliament.

However, the head of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, does not intend to selflessly support the policy of his rival, who has already announced that he will run for re-election. The condition for supporting some government projects is to quickly submit an application for a vote of confidence – “at the beginning of next week at the latest.” – Hurry is necessary, Merz said after the meeting with Scholz, which did not lead to an agreement.

During the meeting with the Chancellor, the opposition leader explained that cooperation is only possible if a motion for a vote of confidence is submitted quickly – “at the beginning of next week at the latest.”

65 percent of participants supported the elections as soon as possible survey Infratest-Dimap institute for ARD television. 33 percent were of the opposite opinion. – Postponing the elections is a sign of disrespect for the nation, said Mathias Middelberg, vice-chairman of the CDU/CSU club, on Friday.

Merz cannot force Scholz to step down. To do this, he would have to declare his candidacy for chancellor and win a majority in the vote in the 733-seat Bundestag. In the current situation, it would be necessary to support extreme parties – the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). Christian Democrats rule out this possibility.

Why does Scholz want to delay the moment he steps down? – The chancellor's chair is a good platform for conducting an election campaign, says Matthias Deiss, a commentator for public television ARD. In his opinion, Scholz's goal will be to improve poll results by submitting attractive proposals, such as a raise pensionswhich have no chance of coming into force anyway. Currently, 14 percent of respondents are satisfied with the government's actions, and 85 percent evaluate it negatively. The CDU/CSU block of Christian democratic parties enjoys the support of over 30 percent of respondents, and Scholz's SPD party can count on support that is half as much.

The expulsion of Finance Minister Lindner from the government was a signal to start the, for now informal, election campaign. The SPD and FDP blame each other for the collapse of the coalition. When announcing the dismissal of the Finance Minister on Wednesday evening, Scholz delivered a very emotional speech in which he accused the FDP politician of being unable to make compromises.

According to the information provided by Lindner, the chancellor wanted to force him to agree to suspend the so-called “debt brake” stipulated in the constitution, i.e. the ban on increasing budget deficit. According to Scholz war in Ukraine allows for a lawful exception to the ban, as otherwise cuts in social spending would be necessary. According to Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck from the Green Party, it was possible to reach an agreement without suspending the deficit ban. Due to the government crisis, Germany currently remains without a adopted budget for 2025.

The collapse of the coalition will have an impact on Berlin's actions in the international arena. In a situation where Donald Trump's victory in the USA presents Europe with new challenges, a key European Union country will in the near future focus primarily on itself. Due to the situation in the country, Scholz will not take part in the COP29 climate conference next week Azerbaijan.

During the European Political Community summit in Budapest, concern about the situation in Germany was visible. According to ARD television, the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, said that “Europe is only strong when Germany is strong.”

Will new elections choose a stable government? The Christian Democratic parties CDU and CSU, considered the favorites, are leading in the polls with a result of over 30 percent, but such a result will not be enough to govern on their own. The coalition with the FDP preferred by the Christian Democrats may not come to fruition because the liberals are teetering on the verge of the electoral threshold, while an alliance with the Greens is out of the question for many Christian Democrats for ideological reasons.

Since the CDU and CSU exclude cooperation with the AfD and BSW, the only solution after the parliamentary elections may be a coalition with the SPD. Such a government under leadership Angela Merkel it existed for three terms in 2005-09 and 2013-21 and was, especially in the final period, heavily criticized. The stalemate on the German political scene may therefore last longer than the politicians responsible for breaking up the current coalition would like.