Germany. Government collapse. Possible coalitions after early elections

In the INSA Institute's study from December 14, the most Germans would vote for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in the next parliamentary elections – 31 percent. In second place was the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (20 percent), followed by the Social Democrats (17 percent). 11 percent of respondents would vote for the Greens. The left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) would receive 8 percent. Liberals are oscillating on the verge of the electoral threshold (FDP – 5 percent) and the Left Party – 3 percent of the votes.

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Dr. Agnieszka Łada-Konefał, deputy head of the German Institute of Polish Affairs, when asked about possible coalitions after the early Bundestag elections on February 23, pointed to the return of the Grand Coalition. – In the case of democratic and centrist parties, the only option is the Grand Coalition – an alliance of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, with the Christian Democrats being a stronger partner and putting forward their candidate for chancellor. Everything indicates that it will be the leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz – said the expert.

According to Łada-Konefał, other constellations of democratic parties are almost impossible at this point. – Liberals will fight to enter the Bundestag, a Green Party most likely, it will be too weak to be the only coalition partner for the Christian Democrats, she emphasized.

A possible alliance of the Christian Democrats with the Greens is ruled out by Markus Soeder, the leader of the CDU's smaller sister, the Bavarian CSU. The Greens have been Soeder's favorite opponent for months, as he tries to attract frustrated voters with his rhetoric before they turn to the right-wing populists of the AfD. – There will be no black-green coalition – the Bavarian Prime Minister emphasized many times, blaming the Greens for the crisis of the German economy. According to Soeder, the “face of the economic crisis” is the leader of the Greens, Robert Habeck. In the Table.Briefings podcast, the CSU leader noted that “ultimately, it is the parties that decide whether a coalition will be formed.” – The CSU is a party that has the right to decide, said Soeder, emphasizing that the CSU is opposed to a possible alliance with the Greens.

According to the deputy head of the German Institute of Polish Affairs, a coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Greens alone is currently impossible. – Soeder sets conditions regarding the shape of the coalition and his priorities as head of the CSU. It is typical for the Bavarian Christian Democrats that they always set excessive conditions, even though they are the smallest coalition partner in any system. They are always the loudest and have compelling, sometimes very controversial demands, noted Łada-Konefał.

According to the expert, Soeder wants to show her electorate in Bavaria that she defends their interests and policy in the region, striving for her visibility also at the federal level. – This may be the reason why Soeder is so radical. Potential coalitions influence the support of the parties that create them. Some, especially the more conservative CSU voters in Bavaria, may be dissatisfied with the fact that the Christian Democrats will choose the Greens as a coalition partner. At the moment, such a coalition remains only speculation, said Łada-Konefał.

Even though the Christian Democrats and the Greens have a different view on migration and economic policy, the CDU does not rule out cooperation in this format. The party's politicians and its leader, Friedrich Merz, had already declared their openness to cooperation with all democratic groups. – This is our rule and almost everyone follows it, said Daniel Guenther of the CDU, prime minister of Schleswig-Holstein. Excluding the Greens would be, according to CDU board member Johannes Volkmann, “strategically unwise.”

Although the CDU does not yet seem irritated by the internal debate about a coalition with the Greens, the party may begin to worry whether the impression of a divided EU will discourage its voters. There is also a question whether Markus Soeder will repeat the “dismantling” of the Christian Democrats that took place during the campaign before the Bundestag elections in 2021. Then the Bavarian Prime Minister attacked the CDU leader Armin Laschet, which could have contributed to the final defeat of the Christian Democrats. The coalition formed last week between the CDU and the Left Party in Thuringia shows how flexible and resilient German democracy can be.

Another wind in the Christian Democrats' sails before the elections is given by the results of another party survey. The greatest number of Germans (29 percent) say that the Christian Democrats would best cope with the most important problems in the country – the economic crisis, immigration and armed conflicts, the issue of peace and foreign policy – according to the Infratest Dimap survey from December 6. The above-mentioned problems began to elude the coalition a long time ago SPDGreens and FDP out of control.

During the rule of the “traffic light” coalition Russia she attacked Ukrainean energy crisis broke out, the rate of crimes committed by migrants increased, and the German economy fell into recession. The turnaround in foreign and defense policy announced by the Chancellor in February 2022 never took place. German fears of escalation war in Ukraine are still high, and the economic crisis is worsening the public mood. In this situation, one of the biggest losers is environmental protection, which in the face of other problems has definitely lost its importance.

On the other hand, defenders of Scholz's coalition will say that his rule fell on one of the most difficult and tense periods in post-war European history. The new government coalition will have to define its position regarding, among others, Russia's war against Ukraine, financial and military support for Ukraine, and arrange relations with the new president. USA Donald Trump. One thing is certain – the election campaign has started in Germany. How important and decisive this time will be for the parties and their leaders is demonstrated by the recent visits of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the leader of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, to Kiev. Politicians already know that the issue of the war in Ukraine may play a key role in the campaign.