After Olaf Scholz's government, nothing significant should be expected in Germany's policy towards Ukraine until the end of its term, says political scientist Carlo Masala, a scientist who teaches at the Bundeswehr University in Munich. In his opinion, the forces opposed to aid, primarily in the SPD, will gain in importance.
– The election results in the three East German states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg (where parties opposed to arms deliveries may achieve good results – ed.) will contribute to the fact that the issue of aid for Ukraine will be treated with extreme caution and will fall into the background – said Masala during a discussion organized by the editorial office of the journal “International Politics” (IP) and the German Society for International Politics (DGAP).
The term of office of the coalition government formed by SPDGreens and FDP ends in the fall of next year. Parliamentary elections will be held in Germany on September 28, 2025. – There will be many slogans, there will be attempts to spontaneously patch up holes, but there is no serious aid strategy – assessed the German political scientist. – I believe that the forces, primarily in the SPD, which have been wanting a different policy towards Ukraine for two and a half years, will become even stronger – emphasized the scientist lecturing at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
He recalled the discussion recently sparked by the media that the government is seeking to reduce military aid in the German budget and to “internationalize” it – replacing it with funds from frozen Russian bank assets. “This solution is not yet a done deal,” Masala warned. In his opinion, it may come to a point where Ukraine will run out of money, and Kiev has not received any major military aid package from Europe for a long time. The political scientist stated that Germany remains the leading country in Europe, but other countries of the Old Continent are “weakening.”
“Scholz won't decide to do this”
According to Masala, the West will not allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons systems to attack targets located deep within its territory in the future. Russia. Washington and Berlin fear “nuclear escalation” – the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia. – The second fear concerns the possibility of Russia's disintegration as a result of losing the war and the chaos resulting from Putin's defeat – explained the political scientist. The proof of this thesis is, in his opinion, the fact that Ukraine did not consult with USA plan of offensive on Kursk Oblast in Russia. – Kiev knew well that Americans would do everything in their power to dissuade them from these plans – said Masala. He added that according to the information he has, Americans did not allow British to transfer Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which could hit targets deep in Russian territory. According to the political scientist, even if the dam were to burst as a result of Russian attacks and Kiev would be underwater, and the number of casualties would be high, the restrictions on the use of weapons would not be lifted. – I consider deliveries of (German) Tauruses to Ukraine to be excluded. Scholz will not decide on this – said Masala. In his opinion, the chancellor “is afraid that such a decision will end in his political death”.
Between “social time bomb” and “political death”
The political scientist expressed regret that the sense of threat in Germany has disappeared, both in society and at the political level. He pointed out that no one in the German government reacted to the statement of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius that the Russians would be able to attack the country within five years NATO. – Pistorius is being neutralized by the chancellor, his financial demands are being rejected. The needs of the army are not being treated as a priority – Masala believes.
In his opinion, the German government is facing a serious dilemma. – If we want to spend more on the military while maintaining the debt brake, we would have to cut other spending. And that would be a social time bomb – explained the political scientist. In his opinion, no one will dare to do that: – The problem is that we should do more, but we can't do it. The West did not have and does not have a strategic plan for Ukraine – Masala believes. – We react ad hoc, we have red lines, which are the use of nuclear weapons and the collapse of Russia. We repeat: Ukraine cannot lose. But what does that mean? That at the end of the war there must still be some Ukraine. This is only a minimum goal – concluded the German political scientist.
Main image source: CLEMENS BILAN/PAP/EPA