From a 15-page analysis, which was prepared by experts of the leading Think Tank in Germany Just before the election, it follows that Migration will remain a key topic in German politics in the coming years. Despite the radical election demands, which also appeared from the political remedy, reality after the election will force German politicians a compromise and a pragmatic approach.
Experts predict that coalition negotiations will be very difficult, and The biggest problems will arise in conversations regarding the future of border controls, deportations and reform of the asylum system. In the document, the authors of the analysis emphasize that Germany cannot solve migration problems on their own, so it is necessary to strengthen EU migration management mechanisms.
Doubts about the rapid granting of citizenship
Experts refer in their analysis to the ideas of conservative parties to eliminate the possibility of having two citizenship in Germany. In their opinion, it would be a compromise to maintain this mechanism while tightening the naturalization conditions that have been changed recently by the government Olafa slanging. Experts propose to extend the minimum period of stay and Increasing the bar in the subject of language skills.
The authors of the analysis note that too liberal reform can lead to abuse and insufficient integration of people who are applying for German citizenship. It is worth recalling that both social democrats and the Greens are in favor of relieving regulations in Germany as opposed to German Christian Democrats and the extreme right with AfDwho reject the principle of double citizenship.
Outsourcing asylum procedures difficult to implement
One of the most controversial topics of the German migration debate after the 2025 election is the outsourcing of asylum procedures, i.e. transferring consideration of asylum requests to third countries. This idea is part of a wider migration management strategy, but it raises serious doubts both in legal and humanitarian terms. This procedure is supported by both FDP, CDUJAK in Department. These parties are of the opinion that the redirection of migrants to third countries would discourage them from an illegal trip to Germany and reduce pressure on the German asylum system, i.e. relieve the local offices, courts and asylum centers.
Experts, however, pay attention to the fact that there are many legal obstacles that can make such a mechanism difficult. This is primarily EU asylum law, which requires that asylum applications be considered in the first EU countryand outsourcing would mean bypassing this system. Also the European Court of Human Rights has previously ruled that the deporting of asylum seekers to countries where they do not have guaranteed rights is inconsistent with the Convention on the Protection of Human Rights.
In the DGAP analysis we can read that now European Union Allows the possibility of sending migrants to third countries only if they meet the rigorous criteria for security and legal protection. Logistic and financial problems are also a threat. Experts remind you that some African countries and Middle East He is reluctant to accept migrants in exchange for the financial assistance of the European Union. Huge costs can also be an obstacle. Great Britain She was supposed to pay Rwanda 140 million pounds for a deportation agreement, and no migrant was finally sent there. Germany would have to incur similar expenses.
Border controls: permanent or mobile?
One of the main topics of DGAP analysis is the issue of border controls, which have become a key tool of migration management in Germany. After the election to Bundestag In 2025, policy regarding control at the internal and external borders of Germany will be subject to intensive coalition negotiations. From 2015, Germany introduced periodic inspections on the border with Austria in response to the migration crisis. In the following years they were extended to the borders of Poland, Czechs i Switzerland (2023), in 2024 for all German internal borders in the Schengen zone, including France, Belgium, Luxembourgies, Netherlands i Denmark.
The purpose of these controls was to limit the influx of migrants coming without documents and the fight against smuggling people. Germany argued that this is a temporary measure, necessary due to “unique circumstances”, but in practice the inspections were regularly extended. Are these controls effective? After the introduction of extended controls. The number of entry refusals increased – in 2021 13,000 cases were recorded, in 2023 over 35,000, which means almost three times.
However, in some places (e.g. border with Belgium and the Netherlands), the number of detention increased paradoxically, which suggests that migrants are transferred to less controlled passages. The authors of the migration report pay attention to the fact that border controls in the Schengen zone are formally temporary and can be used for a maximum of two years, but Germany has already exceeded this limit on the border with Austria. European Commission However, she did not react definitely, which suggests that the EU tolerates this practice despite the opposition of such countries as Belgium, France, Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland.
DGAP experts are in favor of other solutions, such as selective and mobile border controls, negotiations with neighboring countries on the mechanisms of “quotas of refusal to enter” and better use of biometric systems and AI to identify unauthorized persons for entry.