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Grain deal, Black Sea. Russia threatens ships bound for Ukraine. Professor Włodzimierz Marciniak comments

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Professor Włodzimierz Marciniak, a Russian scientist and former Polish ambassador to Moscow, assessed in “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24 that the Black Sea region is currently a “hot spot” due to the tense situation regarding the export of Ukrainian grain. He explained that if the West decided to protect convoys in this sea, then in the event of a potential attack on them, it would have to respond. “This is the situation of the Cuban Missile Crisis and President Kennedy’s decision,” he said.

On July 25, the British ambassador to UN Barbara Woodward stated that Great Britain has information indicating that “the Russian military may expand its attacks on civilian shipping in the Black Sea.” Such a threat was also discussed in an interview with Marcin Wrona, the correspondent of “Fakty” TVN in Washington, Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to OSCE. – We have information that Russia plans to potentially attack civilian ships leaving Ukrainian ports, he said.

Earlier, Russia withdrew from the agreement negotiated by the UN and Turkey, which for the past year allowed for the safe export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.

London and Washington warn against Russian provocations in the Black Sea

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Carpenter: We have information that Russia is planning to attack civilian ships TVN facts

The Black Sea as a “hot spot”

The strategic importance of the Black Sea region in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has been going on for over 500 days, was discussed in “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24 by Professor Włodzimierz Marciniak, Sovietologist and Russian scholar, Polish ambassador to Moscow in 2016-2020.

He said that “the money factor is always and constantly present, also in this war.” – The simplest example is Russia’s announcement of its withdrawal from the grain agreement. There is a basic theme there. The Russians are demanding permission to export ammonia, he noted. He also added that Russia is demanding the removal of sanctions from the bank that supports agriculture there. He pointed out that “these are the basic conditions for Russia’s further participation in this agreement.”

Marciniak added that some of the Ukrainian grain went to Turkey, among others. – And the president of Turkey is still seeking a meeting with Putin to talk to him about renewing this agreement. Because he is keenly interested in returning to him, he pointed out.

At the same time, he pointed out that NATO is guided by “an unchanging principle, regardless of the fact that it is increasing its military support for Ukraine” – not to get involved in this conflict. – And the West refuses to protect grain convoys in the Black Sea. The Black Sea is potentially as or perhaps more inflammatory than the one we are interested in, he added.

Asked if he would risk protecting these convoys, he replied that it was an “extremely difficult decision” for democratic politicians. – Because human life in democratic countries is extremely valuable. And every politician’s hand will tremble to make a decision of this type – he emphasized. He explained that in a situation where the West decided to protect the convoys, in the event of a potential attack on them, it would have to respond.

– This is the situation of the Cuban crisis and President Kennedy’s decision – he assessed. In this way, he referred to the tension of the early 1960s, when the world was on the verge of nuclear war after Soviet missiles were deployed in Cuba. Ultimately, Moscow withdrew the missiles from Cuba, and US President John F. Kennedy pledged not to attempt to invade Cuba again, and withdrew American missiles with atomic warheads from Turkey.

– Kennedy’s motive was obvious. He asked if there was a minimal chance that at least one Soviet rocket would fall on United States. (Advisors – ed.) answered him, (that) yes. This is an unacceptable level of risk. These are the criteria by which democratic politicians decide. An unacceptable level of risk must not be exceeded. But the consequence is what it is – the war continues and pessimists say that it will go on for who knows how long and will consume thousands more (of victims – ed.) – he added.

Main photo source: mil.ru



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