Head of the National Security Bureau, Jacek Siewiera: a three-year horizon is absolutely realistic for the confrontation between Russia and NATO

The head of the National Security Bureau, Jacek Siewiera, spoke on Friday on Radio Three about the future war in Ukraine and the potential threat from Russia for other countries.

He drew attention to the words of the NATO Secretary General. Mark Rutte during a conference organized by the think tank Carnegie Europe, he emphasized that the threat from Russia is long-term, pointing to its preparations for a long-term confrontation with both Ukraineas well as from NATO. Although the head of NATO assured that there was no direct military threat to the Alliance's members, he expressed concern about the future. “We are not ready for what awaits us in four to five years,” Rutte said.

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Siewiera noted that Rutte “is the new Secretary General who, only from the position of prime minister of a European country (Rutte was prime minister of the Netherlands in 2010–2024 – editor's note), relatively far from the front line and direct actions, took responsibility for the entire Alliance “North Atlantic”. – First of all, it has access to intelligence information at a level that was often unavailable before. Gains an overview of the entire eastern flank. Also when it comes to preparations and intelligence information from Washington regarding the development of the Russian Federation and its preparations – said the guest of Trójka.

– Please pay attention to the statements made by the Secretary General of NATO in recent weeks, after taking office, and the horizons he outlines – he said. – Unfortunately, we must – especially from the perspective of the largest country on the eastern flank – monitor the actions of the Russian Federation – he emphasized.

He said that the statement of the head of NATO shows that “the horizon of four to five years is a very real horizon of the next aggression of the Russian Federation.”

Siewiera pointed out that the Russian Federation currently produces 1,500-1,600 tanks a year. – We, as Europe, produce this number for a year, we are not even able to achieve it. These are three or four tanks rolling off the production line a day. And there is no indication that, given that 7-8 percent of the Russian Federation's GDP is spent on armaments, the Russian Federation intends to stop, he said. – Within a five-year horizon, we are talking about creating two additional armies. Not brigades, as NATO creates in the Baltic countries. Not divisions, not corps, he noted.

When asked who he believed Russia's potential future aggression would be aimed at, Siewiera replied that this was an “area of ​​certain speculation” to which he was not entitled.

When asked whether Poland was at risk of being attacked by Russia within five years, he noted that “he had already said it many times.” He emphasized in this context that, in his opinion, “if Ukraine collapsed, the three-year horizon is absolutely a realistic horizon for confrontation (of Russia – ed.) with the North Atlantic Alliance.” He added that “this horizon has moved by a year because Ukraine has persevered in the fight for a year.”

– However, there are still no changes on the European side – he said. – I have the distinct impression that, unfortunately, the threat from the Russian Federation is not perceived on the scale it should be – he admitted.

Siewiera also pointed out that after the US president was sworn in and took power Donald Trumpwhich will take place on January 20, “we will be dealing with a new approach to policy towards Ukraine” from Washington.

– It is a very important aspect that Europe firstly takes greater responsibility for its security, secondly, integrates the way of communication to a greater extent and develops mechanisms of a common position towards conflict in Ukraine so as to be able to act as a partner for Washington in this new political situation and in this new perspective, he said.

In his opinion, “Europe must take up the challenge, understood in a very broad sense, that is, more funds for armament, expansion of the arms industry and a more strategic approach to the perspective of the role of the eastern flank with Ukraine in its sphere of operation.”

In Siewiera's opinion, 2025 “may be the year of truce.” – There are clear signals from both sides of the conflict that it is in the interest of the parties involved in the fight to cease fire – he noted.

According to him, the money transferred to Ukraine by the administration Joe Biden only enough for half a year of fighting. – And above all, the weapons that can be bought for this money – he pointed out.

He emphasized that Europe gives Ukraine more money than United States. – The problem is that Europe is unable to provide weapons because it does not produce them in the same quantity as the United States. This will actually be enough for about half a year of fighting, unless the supply is stopped for some reason, Siewiera noted.

The head of the National Security Bureau admitted that he did not believe in a “classic truce”. – I am afraid that the prospect of peace is a very vague prospect. What we might get in 2025, and I think it's quite a likely scenario, is simply a cease-fire. This is some form of stopping the fighting, he said. According to him, Russia will not withdraw from the conquered areas, and retaking these territories using the weapons that Ukraine has is “completely impossible.”

Siewiera argued that “as Europe, we have an absolute obligation – and it is in our interest – to ensure that Ukraine remains a prosperous country, a country capable of development.” Because – he explained – “the basis of this conflict is the stubborn and long-standing striving of the Ukrainian society for the West, for the Western way of being, for Western values, for the Western world, for democracy.”

– This is the main source of this conflict, this is also what this fight is about. This is what hurts Vladimir Putin – he said. – If we allow Ukraine to become a failed state, which is a real threat, I am afraid (…) we will lose this war definitively, because Ukraine will no longer strive for the West. Because the West would allow this country to collapse, he said.