12.6 C
London
Monday, June 17, 2024

Holiday weather 2023. IMGW’s long-term experimental summer forecast. Weather for July, August, September, October 2023

Must read

- Advertisement -


Will the holidays be hot and sunny? Or rather cold and rainy? This is a question asked by many Poles planning a summer holiday in the country. The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) presented an experimental long-term weather forecast covering the period from July to October.

The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management has published a long-term weather forecast for summer and early fall. The forecast that IMGW describes as experimental, covers the months: July, August, September and October.

IMGW forecast for July

According to the forecasts of meteorologists, in July throughout Poland, the average monthly air temperature will be above the long-term standard from 1991-2020.

As far as atmospheric precipitation is concerned, their sum in the whole country will most likely be within the range of the norm for this multi-year period.

- Advertisement -

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for July 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

The norm of the average air temperature and the sum of precipitation for July in the years 1991-2020 for selected cities in Poland, together with the forecast for July 2023.IMGW-PIB

IMGW forecast for August

The next month of vacation promises to be similar. In all regions of the country, the average monthly temperature in August should be above normal.

The sum of precipitation in most of the country for the entire month will probably reach the values ​​in the range of the long-term standard from 1991-2020. In some southern and central regions, meteorologists are predicting above-normal precipitation.

Forecast of the average monthly air temperature and the monthly sum of precipitation for August 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

Standard average air temperature and total precipitation for August from 1991-2020 for selected cities in Poland with a forecast for August 2023.IMGW-PIB

IMGW forecast for September

In terms of temperature, it will be no different in September. For the whole of Poland, the air temperature is expected to be above the long-term standard for this month.

The sum of atmospheric precipitation, as in July, is to be in line with the long-term norm from 1991-2020.

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for September 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

Standard average air temperature and total precipitation for September from 1991-2020 for selected cities in Poland with a forecast for September 2023.IMGW-PIB

IMGW forecast for October

What will October look like? According to IMGW, the temperature will probably be above normal this month as well.

The situation with precipitation is different. In the north-west, their sum may be above the 1991-2020 multi-year norm. Rainfall is normal in other regions.

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for October 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

Norm of average air temperature and total precipitation for October in the years 1991-2020 for selected cities in Poland, together with the forecast for October 2023.IMGW-PIB

What do the terms “above normal”, “below normal” and “normal” mean

In IMGW-PIB, as in other meteorological centers around the world, the average monthly temperature or precipitation sum for a given month is forecast in relation to the so-called long-term standard. Currently, the period 1991-2020 is considered.

The values ​​of the average monthly temperature or monthly precipitation for this period are sorted from lowest to highest. The lowest 10 values ​​indicate the temperature/precipitation in the “below standard” class, the middle 10 “normal” and the highest 10 – “above normal”.

If we are dealing with an “above normal” class, we can assume that the month will be warmer or wetter than at least 20 observed same months from 1991 to 2020. If the forecast describes it as “below normal”, it will be cooler or drier, while “normal” – similar to the 10-month averages of the comparative period.

Also check the US summer weather forecast for Europe.

When average temperature/precipitation is predicted:

above the normit can be assumed that the forecast month will be warmer/wetter than at least 20 observed, same months in the years 1991-2020;

below standardit can be assumed that the forecast month will be cooler/dryer than at least 20 observed, same months in the years 1991-2020;

normalit can be assumed that the forecast month will be similar to the typical 10 observed, same months in 1991-2020.

How to interpret classes

IMGW meteorologists warn that the forecast of the average air temperature “above the norm” does not mean that there will be, for example, only days with a maximum temperature above 30 degrees Celsius, and the forecast “below the norm” – that we will only have days with a minimum temperature below 0 degrees C. In fact, the “below normal” average temperature forecast does not exclude days with a maximum temperature above 30 degrees C, and the “above normal” forecast – days with a minimum temperature below 0 degrees C. Experts remind that the forecast average temperature refers to the average temperature of the whole month, both during the day and at night.

Also, the “above normal” rainfall forecast does not mean that heavy rainfall will occur, and the “below normal” forecast does not exclude the possibility of such phenomena. The forecast total precipitation refers to the total precipitation for all days of the month. The type of precipitation (snow or rain) is not specified in the forecasts.

Verifiability of long-term forecasts

As emphasized by IMGW, despite the increasing computing power of supercomputers and extensive knowledge of weather processes, errors and differences in forecasts for such a long period cannot be avoided. The discrepancies result both from the risk of sudden (often local) meteorological phenomena that may disturb the forecasted weather processes, and from the very variety of physical assumptions and mathematical and statistical equations used in the forecasting models.

So far in advance it is not possible to describe the forecasted weather more precisely. It should be remembered that the forecast is indicative and experimental in nature, and that it concerns the average mileage for the entire forecasted region and the given forecasting period.

Main photo source: Shutterstock/IMGW-PIB



Source link

More articles

- Advertisement -

Latest article