High prices of apartments and loans, too few land and lack of local and state initiatives – these are the most important problems of the housing market. – In this way we will be waiting for a thousand years, arguing for loans and housing, and there will be too few apartments in Poland – sums up Kamil Sobolewski, the chief economist of Employers of the Republic of Poland.
– The statement that 18 thousand zlotys per square meter (for the apartment – ed.) In Warsaw is the maximum, unfortunately it is too optimistic from the point of view of consumers. Or too optimistic from the point of view of other participants of this market – said on TVN24 on the program “This is how Dr. Łukasz Drozda, a political scientist, urban planner from the University of Warsaw, asked if prices in Poland reached the maximum level.
Kamil Sobolewski, the chief economist of Employers of the Republic of Poland, added that apartments can still get up, because in “in relation to wages they are still relatively cheap in Poland.”
– I think that one of the reasons is that we have one of the most expensive mortgage loans in Europe and in connection with the one who cannot buy a flat for cash – and there are few such people – this must take into account the credit availability of apartments, not availability Income – added Sobolewski.
What to do to make the apartments cheaper
According to the chief economist of Employers of the Republic of Poland “it seems that there are ways to make the apartments be cheaper.” – We showed in our report – probably as the most important (way – editor's note) – land. Today, at the price of a square meter of the apartment, one -third is the price of land prepared for construction – with a building permit – explains Sobolewski. Adds that increasing the number of available land and reducing their price could cause A decrease in their price by up to 10 percent.
Łukasz Drozda admitted that the current housing policy, i.e. treating apartments as a goods, sold mainly by developers, is not the best way to meet the housing needs of people.
– If we were to refer to positive examples (…), it would be primarily Vienna, which often recalls in this context. But also Finlandwhich has a developed housing policy, also including disadvantaged groups and not only to buy development apartments – said the guest.
– It should be remembered that developers are not the only entity that operates on the market – explains Drozda. – Effective housing policy is based not only on the purchase of ownership real estate. Well, because of force – even if we cut the prices of these apartments – they will still be absurdly expensive – relatively for the income of the dominant part of the population. So, without creating other solutions than only the apartments bought, there is no hope for a policy that is stable, which includes other groups – says Łukasz Drozda.
According to preliminary data, in 2024 199.9 thousand were commissioned. apartments, of which developers donated 124.3 thousand. apartments, and individual investors 69.8 thousand In other forms of construction (e.g. cooperative or municipal construction), a total of 5.8 thousand were put into use. apartments.
How to improve the situation on the housing market?
– We, as an employer of the Republic of Poland, reported how to stimulate municipal housing. We suggested to revive such a “place for land” program. That the commercial buildings that arise – in return for the fact that the land gets a little cheaper – 10 – 20 percent of the premises in the popular segment transferred as municipal premises – says Kamil Sobolewski.
As he explains, an investor building, for example, 10,000 apartments, he would build 100 municipal apartments for a cheaper land. As he emphasizes, this solution would additionally motivate local governments to unlock land, “which are today the narrowest throat on the construction market”.
The solution that Łukasz Drozda recalls is the development of social housing, which includes various types-from TBS, currently called SIMs, which are usually municipal companies implementing a kind of lease. – But also housing cooperatives, which are indeed very few. They appear incidentally – he explains.
“In this way we will be waiting for a thousand years”
Kamil Sobolewski points out that a definite change in housing policy is needed. As he explains, the estimated deficit of apartments in Poland, which is the main reason for the housing problem, amounts to 1 million 800 thousand. apartments – mainly in large cities. We need about 87 thousand to build this large apartments. ha of land in cities.
– At this time, the four largest cities – Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław and the Tri -City – not even Gdańsk, but Gdańsk, Gdynia and Sopot – in three years (…) they gave 63 ha – he says. – In this way we will be waiting for a thousand years, arguing about loans and housing, and there will be too few apartments in Poland – says the main economist of Employers of the Republic of Poland.
Double -digit increases in 2024
In the housing market in 2024, price increases dominated in the first three quarters. The data of the Polish Economic Institute shows that the offer prices of apartments in a group of 17 largest cities in Poland in the first quarter increased by 21 percent per year on the secondary market. However, new offers from developers during this period were more expensive by 16 percent. compared to this period in 2023.
In the second quarter, the rates increased by 23 percent year on the secondary market and 16 percent. on primary market. In the third by 18 percent, respectively r/ri 14 percent However, in the first two months of the fourth quarter, the increases in the rates for apartments slowed down. In October and November in a group of 6 largest cities, the price of the apartment was close to 0 percent. The same situation took place in a group of cities from 100,000 up to 500 thousand residents.
In the last month of last year, the average offer price for 1 sq m of apartments throughout Poland amounted to 11.8 thousand. PLN, and in 6 largest cities – 15.4 thousand zloty.
Source of the main photo: Fotokon / Shutterstock