Boris Johnson has insisted he can be staying in Quantity 10 regardless of a string of high-level resignations over the Chris Pincher scandal.
However his willpower to stay in workplace might not be sufficient to safe his future, as these in his celebration who need him gone seem to have their subsequent transfer mapped out.
All of it comes right down to the highest tier of the 1922 Committee – the organisation representing Tory backbenchers within the Commons.
Its ruling govt is made up of 18 members in complete, together with six officers – a boss, two vice chairs, two govt secretaries and a treasurer.
And so they maintain an terrible lot of energy within the celebration – particularly relating to the ousting of leaders.
The chair of the ’22, as it’s identified – at the moment Sir Graham Brady – tends to be the one who hits the headlines, as they’re the one one who is aware of what number of letters of no confidence within the PM have been submitted by backbenchers.
They then have the duty of asserting when the determine crosses the edge to set off a confidence poll, as Mr Johnson solely is aware of too properly.
The PM won such a vote in early June, and below the present guidelines of the committee, he can’t be challenged once more for an additional 12 months.
However right here is the rub – the chief committee can change the foundations if it needs to.
Is that this prone to occur?
It has occurred earlier than.
After a run of losses in parliament over her Brexit deal, the committee agreed to alter them to permit a problem to Theresa Could’s management six months after she won a confidence vote.
Nevertheless, it by no means obtained to that stage. Sir Graham is known to have informed her a call had been made on a rule change, however earlier than he obtained to the element, she named the date for her departure.
In latest weeks, current members of the chief have been lukewarm on the concept of fixing the foundations – terrified of the precedent it could set for future leaders.
However that ought to not reassure Mr Johnson, as a result of the personnel on that govt is about to alter.
Every time there’s a Queen’s Speech and a brand new session of parliament begins, the highest roles on the ’22 go up for re-election – which means a vote is due.
Sir Graham is anticipated to announce the opening of nominations later as we speak, with the primary assembly to swear within the new govt subsequent Wednesday and the primary alternative to alter the foundations the week after that.
Meaning if guidelines have been modified to permit a second vote of confidence within the prime minister, it may feasibly occur the day earlier than MPs go away Westminster for his or her summer season break on 21 July.
Tory MP Andrew Bridgen, who’s an outspoken critic of the PM, has already stated he can be a candidate, campaigning on a manifesto to alter the foundations to permit one other confidence vote into Mr Johnson.
It’s possible extra potential govt members could observe the identical route.
Learn extra: The frontrunners to replace Boris Johnson
Can the PM do something about it?
There have been rumours No 10 may attempt to hunt down some loyalists to place themselves ahead too, to make certain that critics of the present management do not maintain the steadiness of energy.
However the govt is barely voted for by backbench MPs, not these on the federal government payroll.
As many as three quarters of backbenchers could have voted no confidence final time spherical, making it unlikely that technique would repay.
The election of an govt committee of an obscure backbench organisation could appear to be uninteresting inner admin, but it surely may have huge implications for the management of the Conservative Celebration and, in flip, the management of the nation.