IMGW weather forecasters issued an experimental weather forecast for the coming months. Check what weather awaits us in November and what weather the winter months will bring.
Synoptics of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management updated the experimental weather forecast for November, December and January. They also released predictions for February. The first version of this forecast, not yet including February, was described a few weeks ago.
Forecast for November 2021 – IMGW predictions
TEMPERATURE: the average monthly air temperature in Poland should be within the range of the long-term norm from 1991-2020 or slightly above.
RAINS: Monthly precipitation in most parts of the country is likely to be above normal. Normal rainfall is forecast in the south-east of the country.
Forecast for December 2021 – IMGW predictions
TEMPERATURE: across the country, the average monthly air temperature in December will most likely be within the range of the long-term norm from 1991-2020 or slightly below.
RAINS: monthly rainfall in Poland should be within the normal range. There may be less rainfall than the average in the northwest.
Forecast for January 2022 – IMGW predictions
TEMPERATURE: the average monthly air temperature in the majority of the country should be within the range of the long-term norm from 1991-2020 or slightly below. In the southern regions of Poland in the south, an average temperature below the norm is possible.
RAINS: throughout Poland, forecasted rainfall is expected to be within the normal range. Only in the case of the Coast their sum may be higher.
Forecast for February 2022 – IMGW predictions
TEMPERATURE: the projected average air temperature will most likely be in the range of the multi-year standard from 1991-2020.
RAINS: monthly sum of atmospheric precipitation in Poland should be above the long-term norm. Precipitation is normal only in the south-east of the country.
What do the terms “above normal”, “below normal” and “within normal” mean?
As the synopticians explain, at IMWM-PIB (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute), as well as in other meteorological centers in the world, the average monthly air temperature and the monthly sum of precipitation for a given month are forecast in relation to the long-term standard adopted for the period 1991-2020. The values of the average monthly temperature or the monthly sum of precipitation for this 30-year period are sorted from the lowest to the highest. The 10 lowest values indicate the average temperature or the sum of rainfall “below normal”, the middle 10 “normal”, and the highest 10 “above normal” – the experts explain.
What does this mean in practice? When we read in the forecast that the average temperature or total precipitation predicted by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management is:
– above normal – it can be assumed that the month will be warmer or wetter than at least 20 observed, the same months in 1991-2020 (those in the “normal” and “below-normal” categories),
– normal – it can be assumed that the month will be similar to the typical 10 observed, same months in 1991-2020,
– below standard – it can be assumed that the month will be cooler / drier than at least 20 observed, same months in 1991-2020 (those in the “Above Normal” and “Normal” categories).
How to interpret the terms “above normal” and “below normal” in forecasts?
If in the forecast we see, for example, that a given month is to be warmer than indicated by the “norm”, does it mean that we will experience above-average temperatures throughout the month? No, it doesn’t have to be that way. As emphasized by the Institute, the forecast for the winter months with an average air temperature “above normal” is not synonymous with the fact that there will be, for example, days with a maximum temperature above 15 degrees Celsius, and the forecast with an average “below the norm” does not mean that we are awaiting only days with the minimum temperature below -5 degrees C. In other words: the average temperature forecast “below normal” does not exclude the appearance of days with the maximum temperature above 15 degrees C, and the forecast “above normal” – days with the minimum temperature below -5 st. C.
It is similar with rainfall. “Please note that the forecasted average temperature refers to the average temperature for the whole month, to the temperature recorded both during the day and at night. The forecast for November, December and January rainfall ‘above normal’ does not mean that there will be heavy rainfall. At the same time, the ‘below standard’ forecast does not exclude the possibility of such phenomena. The forecasted total precipitation refers to the sum of precipitation from all days in a month. The type of precipitation (snow or rain) is not specified in the forecasts “- IMGW writes.
Main photo source: Shutterstock / IMGW