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Inflation (December 2023). Increase in prices of goods and services. Latest data. Quick estimate from the Central Statistical Office

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Inflation in December 2023 amounted to 6.1 percent year on year – according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). In November, the increase in prices of goods and services was 6.6 percent year on year.

According to the Central Statistical Office, prices increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month. Analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes expected a price increase of 6.5% in December. y/y and growth by 0.3%. mdm.

The data shows that the prices of food and alcoholic beverages increased by 5.9%. y/y, energy carriers – by 9.8 percent y/y, however fuel prices to private means of transport decreased by 6%. rdr.

Inflation in December 2023PAP

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Inflation in December 2023 – comments

“December inflation is 6.1% against the consensus of 6.5%. At the same time, the data is close to our expectations of 6.2%. Core inflation has slowed down to somewhere around 6.9/6.8% (a matter of rounding),” he wrote in mBank social media.

“The data is a big surprise. The reading was below the lowest market forecast. Despite the positive inflation surprise, there are no grounds to expect a cut in interest rates from the current ceiling of 5.75 at next week’s MPC meeting. The price increase in December was the weakest since September 2021. ” – he said in a comment to Central Statistical Office data Bartosz Sawicki, analyst at cinkciarz.pl.

He added that “in 2023, average annual inflation reached 11.6% y/y, 2.8 percentage points less than in the record-breaking 2022,” when “after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, price growth accelerated rapidly.” . “In February last year, inflation reached the highest level since 1996, 18.4% y/y, and since then it has started to decline. The most severe phase of this process has already occurred,” Sawicki pointed out.

“In the beginning of the year, the indicator will be much more stable, it should reach an average value of approximately 5.5 percent. This will be due to a decline in the CPI dynamics towards 3.5 percent y/y in the spring months and its probable return to higher values ​​later year. It will be a consequence of the abolition of protective measures in the field of food prices and electricity rates. The economic situation may also be important,” the analyst explained.

“In December, the decline in inflation mainly reflected a much smaller increase in food prices than a year ago (only 0.2% mom vs. 1.5% mom in December 2022, food prices are also the biggest surprise in today’s reading). In addition, we are observing a consistent decline core inflation – we estimate that in December it amounted to 6.8% y/y compared to 7.3% y/y in November,” PKO BP analysts said.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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