According to economists, inflation will not start to decline this year. Experts predict that this may not happen until next year, but the price growth index will remain high anyway. According to some estimates, inflation could approach 7 percent at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
On Friday, the CSO reported flash inflation estimate in September. According to the office, the consumer price index was 5.8 percent. compared to 5.5 percent. in August. In the following months, according to the forecasts of economists interviewed by PAP, inflation will be even higher.
Inflation in Poland – economists’ forecasts
According to ING Bank estimates, inflation may approach 7% at the end of December this year.
– So far, inflation is surprising everyone because it is higher than previously expected. And this year it will not change. It is difficult to say what will happen next with oil and gas prices, and these factors boost inflation, besides, the level of core inflation is also surprising, which shows that the demand pressure is strong enough to allow companies to pass the rising costs onto customers, the Bank’s economist told PAP ING Dawid Pachucki.
He added that this was also evidenced by the growth rate of producer prices, i.e. producer inflation, which will probably amount to approx. 10% in September. In addition, there is a high increase in the prices of services. All this means that consumers have enough money not to be discouraged by price increases.
According to Bank Pekao forecasts, this year inflation may approach 6%.
– There is a high risk that inflation will amount to 6%. in October. Currently, our forecast is 5.9-6%, although this is a preliminary estimate for the time being. We will know more within a month, when it is known how fuel prices and administered prices will behave, Adam Antoniak, economist at Bank Pekao told PAP.
Increases at the beginning of the year
He expects that then, by the end of the year, inflation will be stable, it may even decrease slightly and we will end December with a price increase index in the range of 5.8-5.9%. But the level of 7 percent. can be achieved in early 2022.
– At the beginning of the year, inflation may reach 6.5%, even 7%. The beginning of the year will mean increases in gas, heating, garbage disposal and waste collection fees. A lot of it has accumulated and these increases will boost inflation at the beginning of 2022 – said Adam Antoniak.
According to Dawid Pachucki from ING Bank, high inflation will stay with us for longer.
– Next year, there will be fiscal stimulation from the Polish Governance, because Minister of Finance Tadeusz Kościński does not hide that this program is to increase consumption. Although in the second half of the year, inflation will temporarily decrease, because it will result from the high base effect (fuel, food) – and therefore the opposite effect, which we recorded e.g. this year – but it will be a temporary decline and in 2023 inflation will start to rise again. We believe average annual inflation will amount to 4.5%. in 2022. In 2023 it will also be at a high level, close to 4%, because after a temporary decline in base effects in the second half of next year, it will start to rebound again in the next year. Core inflation will remain high throughout the entire period, said the economist of ING Bank.
According to Bank Pekao’s forecasts, we will see a peak in inflation at the beginning of the year, but then this indicator will decline. – We should gradually go down to around 4 percent. at the end of next year. And as for 2023, our preliminary forecast says that inflation will be around 2.5-3 percent. – said Adam Antoniak.
Main photo source: Shutterstock