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Inflation in Poland. Are wages actually rising faster than inflation? Economists explain

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A significant part of Poles do not feel an increase in wages, and even feel frustrated because of what the authorities keep repeating to them in the media, assessed Alicja Defratyka, an economist on TVN24. In turn, the economist Rafał Mundry noticed that salaries in the country are very diverse. Experts also predicted the level of inflation in the coming months.

Inflation in Poland in October increased by 6.8 percent year on year, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. In monthly terms, prices increased by 1.1 percent. This is a level that has not been seen since May 2001, when inflation was 6.9 percent year on year.

The average gross salary in the enterprise sector in October 2021 was PLN 5,917.15. This is an increase of 8.4 percent year on year.

Wages in Poland higher than inflation? Economists explain

– I think that a significant part of Poles do not feel it, and even feel frustrated with what the authorities keep telling them in the media. The government refers to the latest data from the Central Statistical Office, which shows that wages are actually rising. However, these are salaries in private enterprises employing more than 9 employees. Just over 6 million Poles work in such enterprises. In Poland, however, we have over 16 million people. The data does not include 10 million people. These are people running their own business, people working in micro-enterprises and people employed in the budget sector – explained Alicja Defratyka.

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– I recently conducted a survey as part of my project and in a group of working Poles, 2/3 said that they did not receive a raise in the last year – she noted.

In turn, Radał Mundry noticed that wages in the country vary greatly. – The approximately six thousand average salary reported by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) is actually just an average. Poles earn very differently, depending not only on the province in which they live, but also whether it is a city or a village – he said. – The Central Statistical Office also publishes data on the median, when it comes to the median, these wages are much lower than the Central Statistical Office officially states in the average. It is rather in the vicinity of 4-4.5 thousand. gross zlotys – he explained.

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Inflation in Poland. Forecasts

Rafał Mundry also predicted the level of inflation in the coming months.

– This year it seems that there will be no restrictions, so this consumption will probably increase in these months (at the end of the year – ed.), Because it will simply be easier to access shops and goods than in the previous year – he said.

According to the economist, higher consumption will make “entrepreneurs want to recoup rising costs and raise prices.”

– This will cause this inflation to approach 8%, I would even estimate that it will be slightly above eight. However, here is good information that the factors that influence inflation are slowly starting to weaken or fade away. This is really a matter of the coming months. In the coming weeks, inflation will increase, unfortunately go up, he forecasted.

More pessimistic forecasts were presented by Alicja Defratyka. – I believe that this inflation in the first months of next year will be even double-digit inflation. It is true that these external factors can start to slow down, but we have many internal factors that are very unfavorable – she said.

– I will talk here about the weakening currency. The Polish zloty is the weakest in relation to the euro in 12 years. If we import goods from abroad, we know that with a weak currency we have to pay more. So the imported goods that we want to buy will become more expensive. After all, we import fuel. Even if the fuel starts to get slightly cheaper on foreign markets, with a weak currency, we still incur higher costs of fuel purchases – she added.

The Polish Order and Inflation

She also drew attention to the entry into force of the Polish Deal. – It is also a strongly pro-inflationary factor. Entrepreneurs who will bear higher tax and contribution burdens, one that there is a higher demand before Christmas, and two that will incur higher costs from next year, so they will want to compensate for it. They will want to pass the rising costs onto customers. If they pass these costs onto customers, the more these costs will grow – she said.

She also drew attention to the actions of the Monetary Policy Council and the controversial statements of the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński. – They destabilize the market and send contradictory signals. Unfortunately, they also make the confidence of foreign investors in Poland weaken, unfortunately I do not assume that this inflation will fall in the coming months – she predicted.

Will we reach 10 percent? – I hope not. This may actually have a negative impact on our economy and GDP growth forecasts may start to decline from 5%. now even up to 3 percent. It will surely hit our wallets and our prosperity next year – said Mundry.

Main photo source: concrete24



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