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Tuesday, December 7, 2021

Inflation in Poland in 2021 and 2022 – Goldman Sachs forecasts regarding the increase in prices of goods and services

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The analysts of the American investment bank Goldman Sachs raised the forecast of this year’s inflation in Poland to 6.5 percent – the press release said. It was explained that this step was taken after the publication of the data from the Central Statistical Office, as well as due to the ongoing upward pressure on food and energy prices and taking into account recent changes in commodity prices.

For the third time in 30 days, economists raised the forecast of the average annual inflation in 2022.

Inflation in Poland – Goldman Sachs forecast

“In connection with the publication of the latest GUS data, the observation of the ongoing pressure on the rise in food and energy inflation, and taking into account the recent changes in commodity prices, Goldman Sachs analysts decided to revise their inflation forecast for Poland. Currently, GS economists expect inflation in Poland to be will reach 6.5 percent at the end of the year, “Goldman Sachs wrote in the Monday press release.

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In their opinion, high inflation will also continue next year.

Price increases in 2021 and 2022

“The media price increases at the beginning of next year, as well as the persistently high prices of durable consumer goods, suggest, according to GS, that the decline in inflation next year will only be gradual and that inflation above the target is likely to remain above the target for a longer period. GS experts forecast that next year inflation will average 4.1 percent. ” – added in the press release.

GS analysts also believe that another interest rate hike will take place this year.

Inflation in Poland – September 2021PAP

Other inflation forecasts

The prices of bread, meat, dairy products, oil and eggs may increase in the coming months. The reason is the strong increase in fertilizer prices observed in the world – reported economists from Credit Agricole Bank Polska.

According to economists, the dynamics of food and non-alcoholic beverages prices will increase to 4.4% in 2022. year on year compared to 2.8 percent. in 2021. CPI inflation (consumer price index) in Poland is expected to increase in 2022 on an annual basis to 4.9%. against 4.8 percent in 2021.

In turn, mBank analysts statedthat “a six is ​​guaranteed in October” and added that “the game for a seven begins in early 2022”.

According to ING economists, “6 percent at the end of the year, which the MPC is talking about, will be broken in October”, and at the end of the year, inflation will rise to “around 7 percent y / y”. They also added that “in 2022 CPI on average 4.8% y / y vs 4.8% y / y in 2021”.

According to Michał Gniazdoowski from the Polish Economic Institute, CPI inflation will oscillate around 6% by the end of the year. – The index will be increased, inter alia, by another increase in gas prices. The slowdown will not take place until the beginning of next year – he pointed out.

Inflation in September 2021GUS

Main photo source: Shutterstock



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