The situation of the Polish economy is exceptionally good and in 2021 economic growth may reach about 5 percent, and in 2022 about 5.4 percent – said the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński in a radio interview. As he added, when it comes to the prospects of the interest rate path in Poland, the November inflation forecast prepared by the central bank will explain a lot.
“At some point, of course, we’ll have to raise these rates.” This is not the normal rate level that we would like to see. If the economy starts to develop rapidly and we are not threatened with lockdowns, etc., then of course we will raise rates, as the situation will require – said the NBP governor on radio Jedynka on Sunday.
He noted that he did not know when it would happen, and the point that would explain a lot will be the so-called November NBP projection.
– In November, we will find out more about the situation in the coming quarters with a high degree of probability. Then we can say something more seriously. The next such point in turn will be March 2022. At the moment there are no reasons to raise interest rates – said Adam Glapiński.
The NBP prepares inflation and GDP projections in March, July and November each year.
During the press conference on September 9, Glapiński said that he would like the conditions for an interest rate hike to take place as soon as possible, already in Q1 2022.
The Monetary Policy Council at a one-day meeting On September 8, it kept all NBP interest rates unchanged, the reference rate is 0.10%. The next decision-making meeting of the MPC is scheduled for October 6.
Adam Glapiński on GDP growth
The President of the National Bank of Poland was asked on the radio of Jedynka about the expected GDP growth this and next year.
Answering this question, he emphasized that the scenario was burdened with certain risks, such as the next waves of the pandemic, the crisis in the Middle East, problems in the supply of crude oil and other raw materials, or a natural disaster. – If we eliminate such elements, we predict with overwhelming probability that in 2021 GDP growth (…) will amount to approx. 5%, and in 2022 it will look even better, i.e. around 5.4%. These will be two years in which we will take further steps to bring us closer to Western European prosperity, said Adam Glapiński.
– The Polish economy is in an excellent position at the moment. What is most important from the point of view of the NBP (…), that the Polish economy is perfectly balanced, that there is a relationship between individual categories, that they grow more or less in parallel. The situation of the Polish economy is exceptionally good, he added.
In his opinion, further development in the next 20 years will be burdened by the EU climate policy and the increase in electricity prices. He assessed that for Poland, as a country based on coal, the period of transition to clean energy should be extended, because Western European countries, when they were at our current level of development, could use any energy source.
Inflation at a worrying level
According to the NBP governor, although inflation has recently reached an alarming level, incl. Due to the increase in electricity, crude oil and freight prices, it is expected to slow down next year.
– According to the best knowledge, which is confirmed by foreign centers, such as the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund, inflation in Poland should generally slow down, its level should generally fall, close to our upper limit for deviations in the inflation target, i.e. slightly above 3.5%. next year. This is how it should look like: we are going to be at the inflation target or just above this target, said Adam Glapiński, noting that analysts operate with probabilities and the only certain factor is the increase in electricity prices, as it results from the energy transformation. He recalled that the NBP’s inflation target was 2.5%. plus or minus one percent.
Main photo source: PAP / Radek Pietruszka