Inflation in Poland in November will amount to 7.3 percent, ie 0.5 percentage point more than in October. In December, it is expected to be even higher, according to the forecasts of the investment bank Goldman Sachs. According to him, the reduction of VAT on gas and electricity will not significantly affect the situation around inflation.
Inflation in November – Goldman Sachs forecast
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that November inflation in Poland, which will be released by the Central Statistical Office on Tuesday, will amount to 7.3 percent. against the market consensus at 7.2%. According to the bank, the main drivers of inflation will be rising food and energy prices, which will add 0.4 percentage points.
Goldman Sachs also predicts that in the short term inflation dynamics in Poland will remain high, and in December the price increase index will be even higher than in November.
The bank reminds that the government has announced a temporary reduction in VAT on gas and electricity, but in its opinion they will not have a decisive impact on inflation in the short term. Goldman Sachs indicates that most of these measures will not take effect until January, and most will end at the end of Q1 2022.
Therefore, the bank expects further monetary policy tightening by the NBP in December. The scale of the interest rate hike is to be determined by the November inflation reading and the zloty exchange rate against other currencies – assess Goldman Sachs analysts.
Inflation in Poland
On Thursday, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of State Assets Jacek Sasin presented details of the anti-inflation shield, providing, inter alia, a reduction in taxes on fuel and gas and the introduction of a protective allowance for households depending on their income.
Inflation in Poland in October rose by 6.8 percent year on year – the Central Statistical Office (GUS) recently reported. In monthly terms, prices increased by 1.1 percent. This is a level not seen since May 2001, when inflation was 6.9 percent year on year.
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