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Friday, April 19, 2024

Inflation, Poland’s GDP (2024-2026). NBP projection. This is how prices will rise

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Inflation with a 50 percent probability will be in the range of 2.8-4.3 percent in 2024 and 2.2-5.0 percent in 2025 – according to the projection of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).

The latest projection of the Department of Economic Analysis and Research of the National Bank of Poland also shows that inflation in Poland, with a 50% probability, it will be in the range of 1.5–4.3% in 2026. In the projection, the NBP assumed that the protective measures would be maintained in their current form until the end of the projection horizon.

Inflation, Poland’s GDP – NBP projection

What’s more, dynamics Poland’s GDP with 50 percent the probability will be in the range of 2.7–4.3 percent. in 2024, in the range of 3.2–5.3 percent in 2025 and 2.0–4.5 percent in 2026

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“In the current round, the inflation projection is subject to significant uncertainty, including as to the horizon in which the protective measures in the field of food and energy prices will apply, as well as their shape. Due to the assumption that these measures will be maintained in the currently applicable form until the end projection horizon, the distribution of uncertainty for inflation is clearly asymmetric. In the case of 2024, the probability of annual price growth above the 50% range is 43% and below 7%. – it was written.

The projection takes into account data available until February 15, 2024.

Inflation in PolandPAP/Mateusz Krymski

Interest rates and the Monetary Policy Council’s decision

The Monetary Policy Council maintained all of them in March NBP interest rates unchanged, the reference rate is still 5.75%.

The decision was in line with market expectations.

Interest ratesPAP

Read also: Decision on interest rates >>>

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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