Inflation in August reached 4.3% year-on-year – the Central Statistical Office reported in the second (more complete) reading. This is the highest reading this year and it is not the end when it comes to the level of this indicator. Services are getting more expensive – by 6.2%, prices of goods went up by 3.6% year-on-year. In monthly terms (i.e. compared to July this year), August inflation was 0.1%. What can be seen in the data?
Central Statistical Office: inflation up in August
As for the overall indicator, its level from the so-called quick reading from two weeks ago was confirmed. We also learned details about the individual components of inflation. Among the main observations are:
- Stronger growth in the prices of services than in the prices of goods.
- Relatively weak holiday drop in food prices. It is only 0.1% month-on-month, with a seasonal pattern of -0.7% mdm – PKO BP economists calculated. In year-on-year terms, food prices rose by 4.1% (in July it was 3.2%).
- Acceleration of energy price growth to 10.4 percent year-on-year.
- Deepening decline in fuel prices, to 1.7 percent year-on-year (fuels may become even cheaper).
What is becoming more expensive?
In terms of the main, broad categories, the largest year-on-year price increases were observed in “housing and energy” – by 9%, “education” – also 9%, and “restaurants and hotels” – 7.5%, as can be seen in the table below.
The Central Statistical Office also reports – looking a little deeper into these categories – that the biggest impact on inflation year-on-year was had by prices in the area of housing – an increase of 7.5% year-on-year, food (excluding beverages) – by 4% and restaurants and hotels – by 7.5%. These three categories increased the overall inflation by 1.9 percentage points, 1 percentage point and 0.42 percentage points respectively. Transport prices and clothing and footwear prices worked in the opposite direction. So let's look even deeper and see how it looked in the most detailed breakdown.
When it comes to food, the biggest increase price On a year-on-year basis, the Central Statistical Office recorded the following items:
- butter (+13.6%),
- fruit and vegetable juices (10.2%),
- tea (+7.2%),
- bread (+6.3%),
- fruits (+6.3%),
- vegetables (+5.2%).
Apart from food, the biggest price increases were for:
- electricity (+18.5%),
- gas (+16.6%),
- organized tourism abroad (+13.6%),
- water supply (+12.6%),
- financial services provided by banks and other institutions (+12.4%),
- sewage services (+11.9%),
- social welfare (+11.2%),
- hospital and sanatorium services (+10.9%),
- tobacco products (+9.4%),
- medical services (+9.2%),
- education (+9.0%),
- dental services (+8.6%),
- hairdressing, beauty and care services (+8.6%),
- organized tourism in the country (+8.1%),
- insurance (+8.1%)
- recreation and sports services (+8.0%),
- apartment (+7.5%),
- restaurants and hotels (+7.5%).
Why are services becoming more expensive?
What can you see here? In the case of food, the most important thing is the rising prices of fruit and vegetables. This is the result of a rather poor harvest this year, which was hit by unfavourable weather for farmers. “This is a strongly pro-inflationary forecast for the rest of the year,” Pekao SA economists note. The boom in electricity and gas is a further part of the effect of the partial thawing of prices, which has been in force since July. The increase in water and sewage prices is also noticeable. We have already drawn attention to this in the context of the July index. Increases in this category are not introduced at once, individual regional suppliers announce them gradually and not everyone received them new price lists at one point. So we can still expect growth in these categories (water and sewage) in the near future.
Interestingly, water and sewage charges are already included in services (unlike electricity and gas charges). And services show a much higher price growth dynamics than goods. This is very broad, as it concerns dentistry, education, foreign trips, insurance, hairdressing and housing costs. Where does this increase come from? In part (or perhaps even mainly) it is the result of wage pressure, including the increase in the minimum wage, “but also a shift in demand from the consumption of goods to thing services” – write Pekao SA economists.
It is worth remembering that different items on the Central Statistical Office list have different “weights” in our monthly reports. budgetsso price increases in some categories have a stronger impact on our overall spending than in others. Hence, food and broadly related housing costs (rent, but also electricity or water and sewage) are more important than, for example, education. This weighting system is called the GUS basket and the Office updates it every year. It currently looks like this:
For the record, let's add what fell the most in August. Year-on-year, these were:
- sugar (-25.7%),
- telecommunications equipment (-12.6%),
- fuel (-9.7%),
- audiovisual, photographic and IT equipment (-8.5%),
- radio and television fees (-6.9? percent),
- passenger cars (-5.6%),
- transport services (-4.7%),
- vegetable fats (-3.9%),
- petrol (-2.8%, on the side: diesel was slightly more expensive year-on-year),
- clothing (-2.5%),
- flour (-2.3%).
What's next? Experts agree: inflation will rise a bit more, approaching 5% by the end of this year (although the exact forecasts differ slightly). The Polish Economic Institute expects over 4.5% in September, and Pekao slightly below 5%.