We can probably forget about cheaper loans in the next six months. The forecasts of the National Bank of Poland and the analyzes of economists will leave no doubts – ahead of us is a year of economic development, further wage growth, but also the risk of inflation, which – as the NBP argues – blocks the possibility of lowering interest rates. The latest December data already show a clear decline in interest in housing loans.
Those who are waiting for attractive loan interest rates must be patient – we will soon pay less for a loan.
– Taking into account the level of interest rates, we currently have one of the most expensive mortgage loans in the entire European Union – notes Dr. Tomasz Kopyściański, an economist at WSB Merito.
In December, 26,000 people applied for a housing loan. Compared to 2023, this is a decrease of nearly 44 percent year-on-year. – You have to honestly look at the fact that with such high interest rates from month to month, the space for taking out new loans is limited, because unfortunately new borrowers have problems with demonstrating creditworthiness, which is a certain barrier – explains Tomasz Kopyściański.
Adam Glapiński, president of the National Bank of Poland, said at the conference on January 17: – There is no room for changing monetary policy here. Inflation rises, then falls, then rises again.
When can we expect a reduction in interest rates?
The Monetary Policy Council has kept interest rates at the same level – 5.75 percent – for over a year. – If we repay the housing loan, we remain on similar fees to what we have been paying so far. If we are looking for money on the market, and we are an element related to this business ecosystem, then this money on the market is still expensive for us and more expensive than in Europe – explains Dr. Bartłomiej Gabryś from the University of Economics in Katowice.
Inflation and interest rates in PolandPAP/Mateusz Krymski
Reductions in interest rates would be positive news, especially for people who have a mortgage loan and for those who just want to apply for one.
Calculations show that assuming a reduction in rates by one percentage point, our creditworthiness increases from PLN 500,000 to even over PLN 550,000. If we already have such a loan, the installment may drop by even more than PLN 300 per month, but we still have to wait for that.
– July and September are the times when we can expect a drop in interest rates – predicts prof. Ph.D. Marcin Kalinowski from WSB Merito University in Gdańsk.
Inflation and flattening of wages. Economists point to the side effects of increasing the minimum wageStefania Kulik/Fakty po Południu TVN24
A period of increased uncertainty
Inflation is still not at the level expected by the National Bank of Poland. The last December reading – 4.7 percent – was lower than expected, but it is still much higher than the inflation target of 2.5 percent.
– The Monetary Policy Council will pay attention to economic development and inflation at this time. So it also depends a bit on the government's decision, on what, for example, electricity prices will be like, because the price of electricity is frozen until mid-year. We'll see what will happen in the second half of the year – says Marcin Kalinowski.
SEE ALSO: This is what awaits us in the economy
This is how the Monetary Policy Council justifies its decisions, according to which the Polish economy is entering a period of increased uncertainty regarding the level of inflation. This is primarily due to energy prices. Further decisions of the Council will depend on their further development.
– The National Bank of Poland has developed a scenario of how inflation would develop after energy prices were released, and this indicates a risk of an increase of 1.3 percentage points, which is quite significant. Any lowering of interest rates could further increase this inflation, notes Tomasz Kopyściański.
Glapiński: forecasts do not indicate an imminent decline in inflation to the target
“The main element that drives prices”
Forecasts indicate inflation of over 5 percent in the first and second quarters of this year. In the third quarter, price dynamics will decline slightly, but may increase again later. – Unfortunately, all this makes running a business, but also everyday functioning in Poland, more expensive than cheaper, for example compared to Europe – says Dr. Bartłomiej Gabryś
Inflation in Poland and the European UnionPAP/Michał Czernek
When the costs of doing business increase, it is natural that they are at least partially passed on to customers.
– There is no good news that we are waiting for, that inflation will gradually decrease. The prices of services are rising especially quickly, as we all know. The dynamics of service prices in December amounted to 6.6 percentage points. This is due to the still double-digit increase in wages. This is the main element that drives prices – said Adam Glapiński on January 17.
For example, the January increase in the minimum wage means that employers will have to pay PLN 450 more for each employee, and the wage increase is to be maintained this year.
– Economic growth will mean that we will earn more than in 2024. And it is estimated that about eight percent is the average salary increase. With inflation at 4.5 percent, this will mean that we will be able to afford a little more, notes Marcin Kalinowski.
But not necessarily for a new apartment.
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