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Interest rates 2023. Marian Noga, former member of the Monetary Policy Council, comments

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Interest rates have remained at the same level since September 8, 2022. – If we have forecasts that inflation will fall below the NBP’s inflation target, then we can talk about interest rate cuts – said Professor Marian Noga, a former member of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC), in “You get up and know” on TVN24. In his opinion, if MPC members “start talking about lowering interest rates, they act against our entire society.”

Monetary Policy Council in October 2021, due to the growing inflationstarted the cycle interest rate increases. During the year, the main reference interest rate was raised 11 times and increased from 0.1 percent to 0.1 percent. up to 6.75 percent As a result, monthly loan installments have also gone up significantly.

In October last year, however, the Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged at the level applicable from September 8, 2022. It was the first such decision since October 2021, excluding August, when there was no decision-making meeting. The Council did not change the interest rates also during subsequent meetings.

PAP/Adam Ziemienowicz

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According to economist Professor Marian Noga, meetings of the Monetary Policy Council should not be analyzed in the context of “how the value of loan installments will change”. – There are between 2 and 2.5 million borrowers in Poland, and there are 38 million Poles, and the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council, of course, affect loan installments, but above all they should affect our wallets, our purchases, prices in stores – said in “You get up and know” on TVN24, a former member of the Monetary Policy Council.

– Therefore, let’s move on in thinking, in speaking, in showing the Polish economy from this side, when we come to a situation where prices will grow at a rate of 2.5 percent, i.e. in line with the inflation target of the National Bank of Poland – ed. ) – added. The NBP inflation target is 2.5 percent. +/- 1 percentage point

The next meeting of the MPC will be held on 9-10 May.

Noga pointed out that the March NBP projection “shows that we will only reach the goal somewhere in 2026”. – When members of the Monetary Policy Council start talking about lowering interest rates, they act against our entire society, they indirectly work for the benefit of those two million people who have loans, but that’s not the point. It is written in the constitution that the National Bank of Poland, the Monetary Policy Council, cares about the value of the Polish currency – reminded the TVN24 guest.

MPC members on interest rates

MPC member Ireneusz Dąbrowski said on Saturday in Polsat News that if the process of rapid inflation decline continues, the Council may seriously consider lowering interest rates after the holidays. Another MPC member, Henryk Wnorowski, spoke in a similar tone in Polskie Radio Lublin. – There is a light at the end of the tunnel that will allow us to talk more and more boldly about interest rate cuts, and this is very good news for all borrowers in our country – pointed out Wnorowski.

On the other hand MPC member Joanna Tyrowicz spoke in “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24that “there is no way we’re going to hit our inflation target this year.” Tyrowicz assessed that “it would be clearly better for the economy” if the Monetary Policy Council decided to raise interest rates.

– Professor Tyrowicz said that borrowers, if they pay even higher installments for a few months, then even for 10 years – because the loans are for 10, 15 years – they will pay less, so it is also an advantage for borrowers, but monetary policy must be conducted in an anticipatory manner, i.e. on the basis of forecasts. If we have forecasts that inflation will fall below the target, then we can talk about interest rate cuts, but we do not have such forecasts yet – commented in “Wstasz i wywiez” prof. Marian Leg.

According to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office inflation in April 2023 was 14.7 percent. year-on-year, compared to 16.1 percent. in March and 18.4 percent. in February. Compared to the previous month, prices went up by 0.7 percent.

PAP/Maciej Zielinski

Main photo source: Pawel Bednarz/Shutterstock



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