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Interest rates 2023. What will be the next decisions of the Monetary Policy Council? Economist Ignacy Morawski comments

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Interest rates remain unchanged from October 2022. This is the fifth month in a row, so it can be said that the so-called Sopot Pact is maintained – said economist Ignacy Morawski associated with “Puls Biznesu” in the TVN24 program “You get up and know”. As he noted, “the financial market estimates that interest rate cuts will start at the end of the year”, which would be good news for borrowers.

During the February meeting, which ended on Wednesday, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged. This means that the reference rate will still be 6.75%. on an annual basis. – The Sopot Pact is in force. Interest rates, after the last increase in September, have not changed for the time being – commented Ignacy Morawski in TVN24’s “You get up and know”.

In mid-July 2022, a recording appeared on Agrounia’s Facebook profile, showing an activist of this organization accosting the president of NBP, Adam Glapiński, during a walk on the pier in Sopot. In this conversation, the head of the central bank said, inter alia: on the NBP interest rates. – At the moment we have the highest interest rates and the highest inflation of 15.5 (percentage – ed.) – noted Glapiński. When asked if there would be further increases, he indicated that “if there will be, then one, 0.25”. Such an increase took place during the September meeting. In the following months, the MPC did not change interest rates.

Interest rates in Poland

– For the time being, it seems that the financial market, i.e. investors who buy and sell, for example, bonds whose prices depend heavily on interest rates – so these are the people who probably follow these rates most closely – expect interest rates to remain unchanged for the next few months, Morawski noted.

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However, he added that “what is very interesting is that the financial market estimates that interest rate cuts will start at the end of the year and that the reference rate, which determines the interest rate on mortgage loans for enterprises, that it will start to decrease and will fall by about 2 percentage points over the next two years. – It seems to me that these expectations are a bit hasty, because inflation in Poland is still high and in some places you can see such persistence of this inflation. But on the other hand, it is often the case that the crowd sees more – judged the TVN24 guest.

“If we don’t know what’s going to happen, sometimes it’s good to see what the market is pricing in.”

The economist explained that this is “a bit of the wisdom of the crowd, i.e. the belief that in a huge crowd of people who observe some phenomena and earn money on a given market, their accumulated knowledge is greater than the knowledge of individual analysts”.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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