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Interest rates and loan installments. Economists: cuts can be expected in September

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Everything indicates that interest rate cuts can be expected in September, believe most economists interviewed by the Polish Press Agency. At its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates unchanged.

As Adam Glapiński, President of the NBP, said at the conference after the July meeting of the Monetary Policy Council, interest rate cut on a “0.25 percentage point” scale is possible in September if “will be inflation single-digit, if the projection for the coming quarters and years will be 90 percent. confidently tell us that inflation will continue to fall.”

Economists expect a cut

– At the July meeting, the MPC officially ended the cycle of interest rate increases, and NBP President Adam Glapiński detailed earlier announcements, saying that he expects the first interest rate cut after the holidays – PKO BP analyst Kamil Pastor noted in an interview with PAP.

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He pointed to Glapiński’s words that inflation in September may be in the single digits, which – according to the analyst – gives hope for interest rate cuts already in September, and not in October or November as originally assumed. – In such a scenario, it would be more likely that before the end of the year the rates would be lowered not once, but twice, to 6.25 percent. – believes Kamil Pastor.

According to Pekao economist Piotr Bartkiewicz, the MPC will not wait for the November inflation projection and will cut interest rates after the holidays. – The NBP conference was unambiguous, interest rates will be lowered in September – said Bartkiewicz.

Daniel Piekarek, an expert in macroeconomic analysis of the BPS group, shares this point of view. – The Monetary Policy Council after its meeting in July this year. officially announced the end of the cycle of interest rate increases, and the NBP president suggested at the conference presenting the position of the Council that the next step – potentially already at the meeting in September this year. – there would be a reduction in interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, i.e. to 6.50 percent. Baker noted.

October or September?

Marcin Zdrolik from mBank also expects a similar interest rate cut. According to him, the MPC will make a decision at another date.

– In our opinion, the MPC will cut interest rates by 25bps, but not immediately after the holidays. In our opinion, the October meeting is more likely, he said. The PAP interlocutor added that then the MPC will already know the preliminary September inflation reading, which “according to the recent statements of the NBP president, may be considered a sufficient signal for interest rate cuts.”

Interest rates in Poland

At its July meeting, the MPC kept interest rates unchanged. The reference rate is 6.75 percent, the lombard rate is 7.25 percent; the deposit rate remained at 6.25%, the bill of exchange rediscount rate is still 6.8%. and the discount rate of bills of exchange is 6.85%.

NBP reference rate PAP

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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