On Wednesday, the Monetary Policy Council will decide on the level of interest rates. Typically, the day after the Council’s decision, a conference of the President of the National Bank of Poland is convened. A conference of the NBP management board was announced for Monday, without specifying the topic of the meeting. The Sejm will work on credit holidays and the so-called windmill law.
On Wednesday afternoon, the Monetary Policy Council will announce its decision on interest rates. Recent statements by Council members signal that rates may be kept unchanged until March 2024, in the case of the reference rate it is 5.75%.
Decision on interest rates
“The result of the meeting is rather obvious – interest rates will remain unchanged, and the communication will, just like last month, point to high uncertainty as to the fiscal and regulatory policy of the future government and the associated risks of disinflation. This narrative was clearly visible in the representatives’ statements. Monetary Policy Council in recent weeks,” say Santander Bank economists.
“In our opinion, the market is still pricing in too large a scale of NBP rate cuts next year, and at the same time probably underestimating the risk of a slight increase in next year’s budget deficit if the majority parliamentary coalition decides to implement some of its election promises. Recent comments from MPC members were in a hawkish tone, and the President of the National Bank of Poland may confirm the hawkish tone at next week’s meeting,” they added.
NBP President Adam Glapiński said after the November meeting of the Council that after earlier adjusting the level of rates by a total of 100 basis points. the space for possible reductions in the short term has clearly decreased. He added that the March projection of the National Bank of Poland will be crucial for further forecasts.
The role of the March projection was also pointed out by MPC member Gabriela Masłowska after the last meeting, who also expressed hope that there would be further rate cuts in 2024. In Ludwik Kotecki’s opinion, the most likely date to return to the discussion on the level of interest rates is March next year. According to Przemysław Litwiniuk, rates in Poland will remain unchanged at least until March.
In turn, Henryk Wnorowski told PAP Biznes at the end of November that the persistence of inflation in Poland gives strong reasons for a “higher for longer” strategy for interest rates, and if subsequent projections show a pace of disinflation close to the currently assumed one, there will be no room for rate cuts for longer time.
Ireneusz Dąbrowski expressed concern about the growing dynamics of real wages and increasing demand pressure, which may significantly slow down disinflation.
The most dovish voice in November was, relatively speaking, MPC member Wiesław Janczyk, who told PAP Biznes that there is room for interest rate cuts occurs and is significant, both in 2024 and beyond.
The description of the discussion from the November MPC meeting will be published on Friday.
Press conference of members of the NBP management board
On Monday at A press conference of members of the NBP management board will be held at 3.30 p.m. Friday’s invitation did not specify the topic of the conference. The last conference of members of the NBP management board took place on November 10 (concerning a dispute within the NBP management board and the issue of possibly bringing the president of NBP before the State Tribunal), and was attended by the president of NBP and five other members, including two vice-presidents of NBP.
According to macro data, the estimate can be expected to be published from Tuesday (3rd working day of the month). unemployment rates Ministry of Family and Social Policy.
Key bills in the Sejm
The first session of the Sejm of the 10th term will continue on Wednesday and Thursday.
The preliminary agenda of the meeting includes the first reading of the parliamentary (coalition majority) draft bill on freezing on Wednesday. electricity prices, gas and heat by mid-2024, which also includes provisions liberalizing wind energy and restoring the exchange obligation for electricity from July next year. Due to controversy regarding some of the provisions of the bill, it was dubbed the “windmill bill”. After the first reading, on Wednesday at At 2:30 p.m., a joint meeting of parliamentary committees is scheduled to introduce amendments to the bill.
On Tuesday, from 5 p.m., the Parliamentary Public Finance Committee will consider the government and parliamentary (coalition) bill on extending the credit holidays. The Polski2050-TD project assumes loan holidays once a quarter in 2024 for people whose ratio of installment expenses to average monthly income from the three months preceding the submission of the application exceeds 40%. As before, it will be possible to suspend the repayment of loan installments of only one PLN loan if the borrower has more than one mortgage loan.
Also on Tuesday, parliamentary committees will consider the government’s draft act on the operation of the hard coal mining industry, which will enable maintaining the liquidity of Polska Grupa Górnicza.
Information about the IPO of Murapol
According to the Murapol IPO schedule, information on the final price of shares offered to individual and institutional investors, the final number of shares offered in the offer and the final number of shares offered to individual categories of investors will be announced on Wednesday.
According to the issue prospectus, the maximum price of Murapol shares in the IPO was set at PLN 35, and the offer will cover up to 14,280,000 existing shares, constituting up to 35%. the company’s share capital. The offer covers only the sale of existing shares. The final share price for individual investors will not be higher than the maximum price. The allocation of the offered shares is to take place on December 13, and the first day of trading in the company’s shares on the WSE is expected around December 15.
The Supreme Court will deal with the case of Swiss franc borrowers
On Wednesday Supreme Court is to address the question of the effects of the invalidity of Swiss franc loan agreements and the method of calculating the amounts due to be returned to borrowers. The question that the Supreme Court is to address on Wednesday is whether “if a loan agreement granted in Polish currency, indexed to a foreign currency and repaid by borrowers is deemed invalid, the amount of any possible enrichment of the lender should be calculated taking into account only the nominal amount of loan installments, or should the interest rate on installments be taken into account at the reference rate applicable to loans indexed to a foreign currency or applicable to PLN loans?
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