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Thursday, June 13, 2024

Interest rates in Poland. When is the discount? Bank Pekao forecast

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The earliest there will be room for interest rate cuts in Poland in 2026, Bank Pekao economists believe. They emphasize that the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) is still hawkish.

“The Monetary Policy Council consistently maintains a hawkish attitude to monetary policy, citing excessive wage growth and the consequences of unfreezing energy and gas prices from July. Inflation will move away from the target again, and to make matters worse, the economic recovery will result in an increase in core inflation,” they wrote economists in the report.

“MPC members speculate that there will be room for rate cuts in the second half of 2025, but in our opinion this will happen in 2026 at the earliest,” they added.

Adam Glapiński on interest rates

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During last week's conference, the President of the NBP, Adam Glapiński, indicated that he hoped that in mid-2025 there would be grounds for interest rate cuts. Glapiński emphasized then that with the partial unfreezing of the shields, the probability of reducing rates in 2024 is zero.

The Monetary Policy Council at its meeting on On June 4-5, 2024, it kept all NBP interest rates unchanged, the reference rate is still 5.75%.

Borrowers are waiting for information about interest rate cuts. The components of mortgage loan interest rates are most often WIBOR together with the bank's margin (as a rule, it is constant during the repayment period). WIBOR 3M and WIBOR 6M contain probable increases or decreases in interest rates that may occur in the next three or six months, respectively. The lower the interest rates and WIBOR, the lower the loan installment.

Read also: “Inflation will be off target.” The President of the National Bank of Poland takes the floor

Inflation and interest rates in PolandPAP

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