The three-month WIBOR (3M) did not change its value on Wednesday. The rate remained at 6.99 percent. For the fourth time in a row, the six-month WIBOR (6M) fell. The amount of the loan installment depends on these indicators.
Until now, the WIBOR 3M and WIBOR 6M indicators have gone up – with some exceptions, when their value has not changed – following the interest rate increases. However, on Friday, for the first time in nearly two months, we noticed a drop in them. On Wednesday, the fourth day in a row, WIBOR 6M continued its decline. On the other hand, WIBOR 3M stopped around 7 percent.
WIBOR 3M, WIBOR 6M – what they are
WIBOR and the bank’s margin are components of the interest rate on loans. Some banks use the WIBOR 3M (three-month) rate, which means that the mortgage interest rate is updated every three months from the moment the loan is disbursed. In the case of WIBOR 6M (six-month), the interest rate is updated every six months.
The above rates include probable increases or reductions in interest rates that may occur during this period. WIBOR indices are determined on each business day, however, we do not know their value until 23.00.
3M WIBOR did not change on Wednesday and remained at 6.99 percent. Previously, WIBOR 3M was below 7 percent on June 24 this year.
WIBOR 6M is 7.29 percent and decreased by 0.14 percent. This means that the value of the six-month WIBOR is the lowest since June 24 this year.
At the same time, the value of WIBOR indicators is still over a quarter higher than three months ago.
Following the rate hike in July, the main benchmark interest rate rose to 6.50 percent. This means that the difference between the 3M WIBOR and the reference rate is 49 basis points. Under normal conditions – as Bartosz Turek, the chief analyst of HRE Investments explained a few days ago – WIBOR 3M is trading at a level 25 basis points higher than the base interest rate.
What will be the peak of interest rate hikes?
The analyst, referring to the current disproportion, explained in Monday’s analysis that it means that “the market is already discounting at least a part of a single interest rate hike”. This means that if we have had or will have an updated amount of installments in recent days, the July and possible further interest rate hike are included in it.
“However, there is no certainty whether it (rate hikes – ed.), And even less subsequent rate hikes, will actually happen” – said Turek. In his opinion, it all depends inflation.
There is no consensus among economists at what level the current cycle of rate hikes will end. Their forecasts show that the reference rate may reach the level of 7.00 or even around 8.50 percent.
President of the National Bank of Poland and at the same time the chairman of the MPC, Adam Glapiński, during Friday’s press conference announced that if inflation continued to rise persistently, the Council would continue to raise interest rates. “If it stabilizes during the summer and goes down, we won’t do it,” he added.
As Glapiński said, “those feet that are now are approaching their upper level – maybe they have reached, maybe they are close”. – (…) we do not know what the situation will be in September and October. We will see what is happening with inflation, what is happening abroad, what is happening in the markets, but maybe, and maybe not, we will continue to raise rates, if inflation rises, we will raise rates, the head of the central bank announced.
The next decision-making meeting of the MPC will be held on September 7. According to the current schedule, the meeting scheduled for August 23 will be non-decision.
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