The creditworthiness of a family of three decreased by about PLN 30,000 as a result of the interest rate hike by the Monetary Policy Council – wrote HRE Investments analyst Bartosz Turek on Thursday.
At the October meeting, the Monetary Policy Council, contrary to market expectations, raised interest rates – the reference rate by 40 bp to 0.50%, the Lombard rate by 50 bp to 1.0%, the rediscount rate by 40 bp to 0.51%, the discount rate by 40 bp to 0.52%. The MPC kept the deposit rate at 0.0%.
WIBOR rate increase, interest on loans up
Bartosz Turek calculated, as a result of increasing interest rates on loans, a family of three, which has two national averages at its disposal, can borrow by about 25-35 thousand. PLN less than a month ago.
“The rate hike translated into an increase in the WIBOR rate, which is part of the interest rate on most loans in Poland. The most popular WIBOR rate – the three-month one – before the October MPC decision was announced, was quoted at 0.25 percent, and on October 13 it was 0 , 68 percent ” – he wrote.
He explained that due to this, the average interest rate on new housing loans increased from around 2.9 percent. to 3.3 percent, and as a result, housing debt installments are higher by about 4-5 percent.
Another interest rate hike in November?
The analyst emphasized that after the October decision of the MPC there was a clear change in forecasts regarding further changes in interest rates in Poland.
“As a result, we are dealing with a growing discrepancy between the declarations of the MPC chairman and the market expectations. The latter suggest that in November we will see another upward move in interest rates. The NBP governor, however, claims that we will have to wait some time for further moves, so that the Council can assess the impact of the October hike on the economy, he wrote.
He noted that regardless of how often the MPC raises interest rates, both the market and numerous economists suggest that the hikes should not be too sharp, and we will reach the pre-epidemic level in 1-2 years.
He indicated that ultimately – i.e. in the perspective of several years – the basic rate should reach the level of 2-2.5 percent. (from the current 0.5%) and should stay in this area for a long time.
“This is very important information, because the implementation of such a scenario means that from today’s environment of ultra-low interest rates, we strive for the environment of low interest rates. Still, loans should not be excessively expensive, and on the other hand, investments in the foreseeable future will not allow us to protect savings against inflation “- summed up Turek.
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