On Friday morning something happened that has been hung in the air for careful observers for a long time. In the morning Israel began extensive attacks on Iranwhose declared goal was to be there Nuclear and military facilities. The reports of the Iranian side show that the operation was aimed, among others in a key uranium enrichment plant in Nathanz and an object in Parchinwhere nuclear weapons were to be conducted.
The American president was to know about the Israeli attack in advance Donald Trumpwhich previously called for a diplomatic solution to the issue Iranian nuclear program. Last Thursday, in the American and Israeli media, there were also reports, suggesting that such The attack may take place “within a few days”. In short, the escalation was expected and, according to media reports, coordinated with Washington.
Israel attacked Iran – why now?
However, the issue of the term remains a key question. From the narrative of Tel Aviv – messages of the Israeli army, the message of the Prime Minister Binjamin Netanyahu – We learn that in recent months the Iranian nuclear program “noticeably accelerated”, “significantly bringing the regime to obtaining nuclear weapons”. In addition, Israel's defense forces stated that the local interview has numerous materials indicating “to a specific plan of the Iranian regime aimed at destroying Israel”.
Netanyahu even gave his numbers in his message to the nation. He said that Iran gathered enough enriched uranium to build nine nuclear bombs.
The thing is that similar reports – suggesting that Iran from building nuclear bombs He divides barely “a few months” – they have been appearing since the 1980s and in serious titles of the American and Israeli press.
According to Marcin Krzyżanowski, an expert for the Middle East and a former diplomat, The Friday date of the attack was influenced by Two issues, the first of which is Israeli internal policy.
– in recent days Israeli opposition attempted the overthrow of the government premiere Binjamin Netanyahu – indicates.
The second possible cause applies to conversations on the Washington-Teheran line. – Iranian-American talks on Sunday were to take place on Sunday Iranian nuclear program. Although there was a relatively little chance to reach an agreement on Sunday, the conversations went in the right direction. The Israeli attack storped at the moment all attempts to diplomatic conflict to be resolved around this program – he explains in an interview with Interia.
Israel. Netanyahu government crisis
The orientalist notes that in Israel has been going on for a long time political crisiswhich began before the attack of Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023 – from time to time, as soon as the situation stabilizes a little, this thread returns – and with it the thread possible placing the Prime Minister Netanyahu in court For corruption crimes and abuse of power – he indicates, reminding that mass protests against the prime minister are regularly taking place in Israel. These demonstrations took place even during the ongoing Israel war with Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
– This crisis continues. Netanyahu It is possible to keep the chair of the premiere mainly thanks to the support of radical parties, calling for strength solutions of all conflicts to which Israel is, including Iran – he emphasizes Marcin Krzyżanowski.
We ask if Netanyahu he must produce a situation in the country exceptional condition, to stay in power and move the specter of the corruption process from each other, and thus – possible prison. Alexis Bloom suggests such a vision of the motivation of the Israeli prime minister in the famous document “The Bibi Files”. Due to the privacy regulations, this film is not possible to see in Israel – or at least through legal sources. According to our interlocutor, although “this is not the only factor that dictates the prime minister's decisions, but It is very important“.
Iranian nuclear program. “The only signal”
The actual progress also remains an important issue Iranian nuclear program. As reported by the daily “Jerusalem Post”, although the Friday operation aimed at Iran has been prepared for a long time, it was decided by “a change in Tehran's nuclear program” and the feeling Israeli armythat time ends for a possible reaction.
– the only signal to confirm Israeli accusations is Iran's message from Thursdaywhen the meeting took place Council of Governors of the International Atomist Agency. It adopted a resolution on the announcement of Iran with a state that does not comply with the rules Nuclear weapon non -political treaty (NPT). In response to this resolution, Iran announced that he would replace old first generation centrifuges at the center in Natanz, six -generation centrifuges, which are ten times more efficient. Besides announced the launch of the third uranium enrichment center. It could also give an asum to attack – notes the expert.
What future of US-Iran negotiations?
Israeli army She said that she was ready for multi -day confrontationbut it all depends on the way you answer Iran. It is known that at least in retaliation towards Israel was launched 100 dronessome of which were destroyed by Israeli fighters in the airspace of third countries.
For geopolitical discussion Donald Trump also joinedwho on his social platform decided to urge Tehran to conclude nuclear agreement.
– Given the scale of the Friday attack and the fact that the leading characters were killed as a result Iranian armed forcesit is hard for me to imagine that Iran, in the foreseeable future, would return to the negotiations table. Iran has already announced that he would not take part in Sunday negotiations – notes Marcin Krzyżanowski.
Meanwhile, over Iranian cities Siara i Tabriz More clouds of thick black smoke floats. With them, hope for an agreement escapes – at least for now.