According to an analysis by The New York Times, Israel's weakening of two terrorist organizations, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon, has destroyed Iran's advanced defensive line. Iran does not want an open war with Israel and is now trying to defend its position in the region, trying to gain some diplomatic advantage on the sidelines of the ongoing UN General Assembly.
– It is Israel that wants a full-blown conflict – the president said on Tuesday Iran Masud Pezeshkian at the General Assembly UN and added that the Israelis “are pushing us to a place we don't want to be.”
As the “NYT” writes, Pezeszkian's speech was an attempt at a new beginning and to demonstrate the ability to maintain good diplomatic relations with the West.
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“Iran can't stand this forever”
According to experts consulted by the New York Times, Iran's foreign policy, which is currently underway behind the scenes at the UN, has three main goals: to build up its deterrent capabilities against Israel in such a way as to avoid an open conflict, and to continue supporting Hamas, Hezbollah and Huti operating in Yemenwithout the need to defend them on the battlefield.
Iran also wants to achieve the lifting of sanctions by resuming nuclear negotiations, with the possibility of maintaining trade relations with China and Russia.
Hezbollah fell victim to sophisticated special operationPAP/EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, almost a year ago, has changed the rules of the game. Now, with Hamas defeated by Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah falling victim to a sophisticated special operation that blew up its communications equipment, Iran finds itself in a difficult position.
Cornelius Adebahr, an Iran specialist at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said Iran needs to support its Axis of Resistance. He explained that “Iran can't stand this forever” because “people will ask, 'What kind of power is it if it can't support its allies?'”
Iran's Threatened Position in the Region
The response to Israel's actions against Hezbollah and Hamas and the assassination of the leader of the Palestinian terrorist organization Ismail Haniyeh, which took place in Iran itself, could be to obtain nuclear weapons. This strategy is supported by the most radical part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah, said Ellie Geranmayeh, an expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
At the same time, Pezeshkian, seen as a moderate representative of the Iranian regime, wants a new beginning in foreign and domestic policy, which may be the result of general social discontent in the Islamic Republic. This was demonstrated by the protests in 2022 after the mysterious death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by the moral police for not properly covering her hair.
International Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez said that “Iran is at a crossroads” and must quickly make clear decisions if it does not want to lose its position in the region.
Main image source: PAP/EPA/WAEL HAMZEH