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ISW: Vladimir Putin needs Wagner Group mercenaries

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The Kremlin has made it clear that it needs the forces of the Wagner Group to support its operations in Ukraine, experts from the US Institute of War Research write in the latest analysis, referring to the speech of Vladimir Putin, which he gave late Monday evening. At the same time, analysts emphasize that the Russian leader “will not forgive” those who follow Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Putin could have arrested the commanders of the Wagner Group for treason, but instead he proposed forgiveness and integration of the formation into the structures of the defense ministry, which indicates that the Kremlin needs trained and effective staff. To those who follow Yevgeny Prigozhin on BelarusPresident Russia will not forgive – analysts of the Institute of War Research (ISW) forecast in the latest analysis.

SEE ALSO: Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Live coverage in tvn24.pl

The institute emphasizes that in its In his Monday speech, Vladimir Putin encouraged mercenaries from the Wagner Groupto join the Russian armed forces and continue to fight against Ukraine and participated in other Russian operations abroad. The Russian leader also described the organizers of the Group’s Saturday rebellion as traitors, and although he did not mention Prigozhin by name, his “speech leaves little room for any reconciliation with him,” analyzes ISW.

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READ ALSO: What we don’t know about Prigozhin’s rebellion

READ ALSO: Prigozhin breaks the silence

The Wagner Group without Prigozhin?

According to the institute, Putin’s words prove that Sergei Shoiguwhose powers Prigozhin questioned, will most likely keep his position for the time being.

“The future of the Wagner Group is unclear, but most likely Yevgeny Prigozhin will not be in it, and perhaps this formation will not survive as a separate or uniform entity” – ISW believes, although it is of the opinion that some of the mercenaries may follow Prigozhin to Belarus.

However, if the Kremlin puts pressure on Belarus, it will not provide Prigozhin or the mercenaries of the Wagner Group with real shelter. If they were accused of high treason, Alexander Lukashenko will probably consent to their extradition, the institute estimates.

The Wagner Group revolt hour by hour. This is how Prigozhin challenged Putin. He finally laid down his weaponAngelika Maj/Facts after noon TVN24

Shoigu’s future

“Russian sources, however, continue to speculate about changes in the Russian military command. Russian military bloggers have launched a campaign to promote the governor of the Tula region Alexei Dyumin to replace Sergei Shoigu as defense minister (…) Other military bloggers say that the Russian Federal Security Service is currently investigating Diumin’s ties to Prigozhin,” the analysis reads.

According to ISW, a blogger close to the Kremlin has not ruled out reshuffling other managerial positions, such as in the general staff of the Russian armed forces.

Main photo source: PAP/EPA/ARKADY BUDNITSKY



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