“It exposed the weakness of the Tehran regime”

Israel's military and interview operation against Iran impresses in terms of preparation and effectiveness and exposed the weakness of the regime in Tehran very clearly – said Philip Wasielewski, a military analyst and a former CIA officer. As he said, she may shake the position of the authorities in Iran.

Wasielewski, who participated in CIA operations in Afghanistan, in this way summed up the first days of Israeli bombing Iran and the Iranian answer.

He pointed out that “Israel showed last year that he had the ability to freely set goals inside Iran, destroying objects related to the rocket program.” – But this time the scale of this is completely different: there were reports that 200 aircraft were used in the first waves, of which none was knocked down. They were able to eliminate all the most important military commanders, knowing their exact location, and hurt heavily defended objects. In addition, we hear that the Israelis conducted sabotage actions inside Iran, very similar to those led by Ukrainians in Russia – lists the expert, currently a Think-Tank Foreign Policy Research Initiative analyst. – All this indicates a very successful military operation – he assessed.

Wasielewski stated that the total effect of attacks on the goals related to the Iran atomic program may remain unknown for a long time, and the complete destruction of these objects is unlikely. He assessed, however, that Israel In this way, he could at least undo the progress made by Tehran, delaying the possible possibilities of obtaining nuclear weapons by Iran for years.

Political effects of Israeli surgery

However, he said, perhaps more important are the political effects of the Israeli blow, which exposed the powerlessness and weakness of the Iranian regime.

– Colloquially speaking: we are dealing with a situation in which the country, which bases most of its propaganda on anti -Semitism and anti -anti -monk, receives a powerful spanking from a group of Jews, without inflicting serious losses – said Wasilewski. – Of course, it is difficult to expect the Iranians to overthrow the regime because it calls them to this Israel – society usually in such situations solidarity with the authorities when its country is attacked. But in the long run, his position in the eyes of society and other actors in the Middle East will be much weaker. In the Middle East it is difficult to survive when you show a weakness – he added.

He noted that this weakness can be seen in the alliance system that Iran has built for years in the region. As far as Tehran could count on the help of militias in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iraq, Yemenor to support the Syrian regime, today the pro -Viranian net is in much worse condition, dismantled by earlier Israeli strikes against Hezbollah or the defeat of the Assad regime in Syria.

Wasielewski pointed out that although Iran responded to Israel with salvos of ballistic missiles, most of them were intercepted, and Tehran's rocket resources are probably limited, so Iran is unable to maintain fire exchange for a long time. He also stated that the operation and helplessness of Iranian air defense systems – including Russian S -300 and S -400 – is another anti -advertising of Russian weapons. He added that political effects can be wider for Russia. He reminded that in January Russia signed with Iran with a 20-year security agreement, which turned out to be not worth much.

– You can ask: how much did Iran give. This is a similar situation we saw in the war of Armenia with Azerbaijan, where the alliance with Russia did not give much Armenia. Seeing it North Korea She could think about how much Russian guarantees give – said Wasielewski.

He added that another effect of an Israeli attack is to stop the supply of Iranian rockets and drones to Russia.

The expert assessed that despite the previous opposition shown by Donald Trump The US has strategically gained at attack against Israeli plans. – I think that basically someone should thank someone, because it has done our strategic situation much easier – he said.