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Kyiv is waiting for arms deliveries. Experts on the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive

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The transfer of combat vehicles to Ukraine was a clear support for Kiev’s plans for a counterattack, believes former Ukrainian defense minister Andriy Zagorodniuk. In turn, Konrad Muzyka points out that the military support announced by the US will have an impact on the battlefield.

The last military aid will prepare Ukraine to counterattacks thwarting Moscow’s efforts to resume the weakening invasion. Kyiv, however, needs other weapons systems to win decisively, the Reuters agency said, citing the opinions of military analysts.

Experts note that when Russia preparing for a protracted war, it is unclear whether European defense production will be able to sustain high levels of military aid.

United States and Finland, ahead of Friday’s talks at Ramstein Air Base, announced new military aid packages of $2.5 billion and €400 million – but this did not break the impasse over the supply of German-built Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

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American Stryker wheeled armored personnel carrier from the NATO battalion in Poland15th Giżycko Mechanized Brigade

According to the list published by the Ministry of Defense, the US intends to provide Ukraine with more than 550 vehicles, including 90 strykers, 59 bradleys, 53 MRAPs and 350 humvees (HMMWV). “It will certainly have a tactical impact on the battlefield,” said defense analyst Konrad Muzyka.

Delivery of tanks from Germany is a matter of time

We pledge to jointly provide Ukraine with unprecedented arms assistance, including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defense systems, combat vehicles and ammunition. Poland, Great Britain, Czech and the Baltic States, whose representatives met on Thursday in Estonia.

During a meeting of NATO allies at the Ramstein base, it was not possible to reach an agreement on the supply of Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Ukraine’s former defense minister Andriy Zagorodniuk told Reuters that he believed it was only a matter of time before Berlin approved tank deliveries.

Ukrainian soldiers near BakhmutOLEG PETRASYUK/PAP/EPA

– We’re getting stronger. Everything that we have not yet received, we will receive, confirmed the predictions of the former defense minister, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office Andriy Yermak.

Zagorodniuk believes that the transfer of combat vehicles to Ukraine was a clear endorsement of Kiev’s plans for a counterattack. “The expenditure on ammunition is huge, unheard of since the Second World War. We also see armored personnel carriers, bradleys and strykers, which are obviously proof of the allies’ faith in our counter-offensive – he emphasized.

Zagorodniuk: time is not good for us at all

In recent weeks, fears have been raised in Kiev that Russia could use the cold winter weather – which is slowing fighting on the front – to regroup, rearm and launch a major new offensive. At the same time, Ukraine wanted to launch counterattacks itself, the Reuters agency points out.

Zagorodniuk believes that Russia is not able to carry out anything more than a local offensive. The former defense minister speculates that Russia under Valery Gerasimov may use the winter break to redesign its war campaign to wage a long war.


– We are categorically not interested. I don’t think time is on our side at all, we have to finish most of the fights this year.”

Ukraine is waiting for arms deliveries

Reuters, citing an unnamed source in the Biden administration, recalled that authorities in Washington advised Ukraine’s leadership that Kyiv put on hold plans for a broad offensive against Russian troops until the latest shipments of American weapons and necessary training of troops were carried out.

At the beginning of the year, Germany announced that it would send 40 Marder combat vehicles before the end of March. Paris, in turn, will send the AMX 10-RC armored fighting vehicles. Konrad Muzyka said that the first combat vehicles will not arrive until March or April.

In a December interview with The Economist, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhny said he needed 300 tanks, 600-700 combat vehicles and 500 howitzers to help his forces repel the Russians. “I know I can defeat this enemy, but I need resources to do so,” he explained.

Main photo source: 15th Giżycko Mechanized Brigade

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