According to many forecasts, the year 2024 may turn out to be the hottest such period in human history. The warming phenomenon played a large part in this The Child (boy). Unfortunately, there are many indications that it has a cooling effect The Girl (girl), if it appears at all, it may have a very weak impact on the climate of our planet – say experts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
La Niña on Earth: Half and half chance
According to scientists, 55 percent La Niño may occur by the end of February 2025. However, there is an equal chance that this will happen between February and April.
“2024 started with an El Niño and is on track to become the hottest on record. Even if the La Niña effect occurs, its short-term cooling impact will be insufficient to compensate for the warming effect record emissions of heat-sustaining greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” comments WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo.
La Niña with unfavorable conditions
The phenomenon known as La Niña involves cooling of the surface in the central and eastern parts Pacific Ocean in the equator region. It balances the effects of El Niño, bringing cooling and mitigating its impact on the climate Earth.
Its weakening makes we should expect temperatures to remain very highas well as the further occurrence of unfavorable phenomena, such as droughts, heavy rains causing floods, powerful storms and hurricanes, or forest fires, which in the past year were so severe for the inhabitants of many continents.
So far, La Niña is not developing as quickly as scientists previously hoped. One possible cause is the occurrence of strong westerly wind anomalies, observed throughout most of September until early November 2024. They are not conducive to the development of La Niña.
Previous WMO forecasts published in September estimated that the long-awaited phenomenon was 60 percent. will develop in the period from December to February.
Both The ChildWhat The Girl are climatic phenomena that usually occur approximately every 3-7 years. However, with ongoing climate change, their frequency is beginning to change.
El Niño usually does not last longer than a year, although the longest recorded event of this type lasted 18 months. In turn, La Niña may last up to twice as long: two years, or drag on even longer. So far, the longest La Niña lasted was 33 months.
Source: AFP, WMO.int, Climate.gov