“Israel is waging a dirty war against Lebanon,” its Prime Minister Nadschib Mikati said during an emergency session of the UN Security Council mid-week in New York. Israel is responsible for the unprecedented escalation in Lebanon and the killing of hundreds of civilians in a matter of days, “including youth, women and children,” Mikati said.
Long story. “It continues to weaken the state.”
That is why he is counting on a joint statement by France and the US, which enjoys international support and will “end the war.” However, Israel rejects this plan. The Lebanese Prime Minister's speech shows that his government is largely powerless in the face of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. It has no significant influence on the actions of both sides of the conflict. Once again, the chronic weakness of the Lebanese government and state was demonstrated in a particularly dramatic way.
However, this weakness has a long history. “Lebanon was founded in the early 20th century as a Christian Maronite state in alliance with the French protecting power,” says Markus Schneider, head of the regional project of the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation for Peace and Security in the Middle East in Beirut.
– The inherent defect of this statehood was that from the very beginning it included large areas inhabited by non-Maronite people. Confessionalism was ultimately a compromise intended to integrate other parts of the population. However, it prevented the development of a strong nation state – explains the expert.
This religious structure was strengthened by the civil war in Lebanon that broke out in 1975, during which mainly the three largest religions in the country faced each other – Shiites, Sunnis and Maronites. After the end of the war in 1990, a balanced religious system was established, which was intended to equalize the interests of individual population groups.
– However, this system has led to these groups repeatedly trying to advance their own interests at the expense of other groups – says Marcus Schneider. – This continues to weaken the state. For example, from 2022, the country cannot reach an agreement on the election of the president, he adds. The disunity is also linked to rampant corruption. – If there is no strong state that opposes the centrifugal forces in the country and its own institutions, an oligarchic system easily arises in which everyone works for their own benefit – explains Markus Schneider.
Ruthless Hezbollah
In addition, the country suffers from the Shiite organization Hezbollah, which is considered terrorist by the US, Germany and several Sunni Arab countries.
The group was founded in 1982 during the Lebanese Civil War and from the very beginning it was intensively supported by Iran, especially militarily. The Washington-based Wilson Center described Hezbollah's armed wing in 2022 as “the most powerful irregular military player in the Middle East, and probably the world.” It was Hezbollah, without consulting the rest of Lebanon's population, that also shelled Israel after the Gaza war began last fall.
“Hezbollah has essentially taken Lebanese politics hostage,” says Middle East expert Kelly Petillo of the European Council on Foreign Relations, outlining the Shiite militia's fundamental approach.
Army weakness
The weakness of the state is also reflected in the passivity of the Lebanese army (Lebanese Armed Forces / LAF), which, especially in southern Lebanon, has a big dilemma. Pursuant to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, it cooperates there with the UN peacekeeping mission (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, UNFIL).
Both military forces have 15,000 soldiers each. Their presence is associated with the 2006 Lebanese War. Israel was then stationed in southern Lebanon. When these forces one day withdraw, the two forces will work together to ensure that these positions are not occupied by any armed Lebanese militias. Only those forces authorized by the Lebanese authorities should be present in this zone. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has so far ignored this agreement and continues to have a presence in the region.
Relatively powerless. The specter of civil war
Militarily, the Lebanese army is relatively powerless. In the Global Firepower Index ranking, which compares the capabilities of national armies around the world, the Lebanese army ranks 118th out of 145 countries. It would not be able to put up serious resistance to the 17th-ranked Israeli army, nor would it be able to militarily stop Hezbollah. – This would probably drag Lebanon into a civil war – says Marcus Schneider of the Friedrich Bosch Foundation.
– The biggest problem of the Lebanese army is and remains a political problem. Because it is not under the control of a single religious group, the army is generally considered one of the few supra-religious institutions in the country – explains the expert, adding: “however, the army was also weakened by the state and economic crisis.” Therefore, it is supported financially, for example in terms of salaries. Behind this is the fear that with the collapse of the army, the Lebanese state may also collapse. But of course the army cannot solve the country's political problems.