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Loan installments after the Monetary Policy Council’s decision (November 2023). Calculations

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NBP interest rates remain unchanged. “Mortgage loan installments, however, will fall anyway,” said Jarosław Sadowski, chief analyst at Expander Advisors. He explained that this will happen “because their amount depends on the level of the WIBOR rate.”

The Monetary Policy Council decided about leaving interest rates unchanged. As a result, the reference rate is still 5.75%.

NBP reference ratePAP

“Mortgage loan installments, however, will fall anyway because their amount depends on the level of the WIBOR rate, and not on the NBP rates. The WIBOR 3M rate dropped to 5.64%, so it is already lower than the NBP reference rate (5.75%). .)” – noted Sadowski.

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Interest rates and loan installments

The calculations prepared by him show that in the case of a loan based on WIBOR 3M, for the amount of PLN 300,000, granted in November 2020 for 30 years, the installment will decrease from PLN 2,351 (amount in the last 3 months) to PLN 2,138.

“The installment will still be much higher than in the initial repayment period. Back then it was PLN 1,174,” the analyst said.

Rates unchanged – installmentsExpander

The situation of savers

Sadowski said that the lack of a reduction is good news for savers, because the interest rates on bank deposits and treasury bonds.

The analyst explained that “the real interest rate on deposits (taking into account inflation and tax) has recently increased to a long-unseen level of -1.78 percent.”

“Deposits still bring losses in real terms, but this loss is the lowest since February 2021. In February it was -15 percent. Let us add, however, that these are deposits made in October 2022. The result of -1.78 percent is responsible for a drop in inflation to 6.5 percent (preliminary data for October) and quite high interest rates on deposits a year ago (5.68 percent),” the analyst added.

“However, the question automatically arises as to what the real interest rate on deposits currently opened will be. On the one hand, it depends on the interest rate that a given person can obtain. On the other hand, on the level of inflation. If the interest rate is, for example, 4.5 percent, then inflation would have to drop to 3.64% so that the deposit does not result in a loss in real terms,” ​​wrote the expert.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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