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Loans in Poland (consumer, housing) – January 2023. BIK analysis

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The value of housing loans granted in January 2023 decreased by 65.2 percent compared to January 2022, the Credit Information Bureau (BIK) informed. It also indicated that in terms of numbers, the decline was 63.1 percent year-on-year.

In January, banks granted 6.2 thousand. housing loans in the amount of PLN 2.047 billion. This is 2.9 percent. less compared to December in terms of numbers and 1.2 percent. less in terms of value. The average loan amount in January was PLN 329.17 thousand. PLN and was lower by 5.7% on an annual basis. – reported BIK. It also confirmed that in 2023 the value of loans granted will amount to PLN 28 billion.

Decline in the housing loan market

– In January, the downward trend in the sale of housing loans continued. Banks granted them only 6,217, which is the lowest result in 13 years, i.e. since January 2010. The monthly value of housing loans in January 2023 amounted to PLN 2.047 billion – this is the reading that is among the lowest since January 2010 – indicated prof. Waldemar Rogowski, chief analyst of the BIK Group.

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So what can change the situation on the housing loan market? – Firstly, an increase in the demand for housing loans, and this requires, as I have written many times, the combined occurrence of several phenomena. Discounts interest rates, real increase in salaries, liberalization of supervisory requirements in the field of creditworthiness calculation (here we already have the first swallow), decline in real estate prices (some symptoms of price slowdown are also visible) – explained Prof. Rogowski.

He also added: – Secondly, the willingness of banks to grant housing loans. A housing loan is a product with the lowest credit risk, but currently with a very high legal risk. In a sense, a housing loan becomes for consumers like the purchase of a financial option, and not a binding financial contract, which may discourage banks from granting it on a massive scale.

Consumer loans – increase

“In January 2023, compared to January 2022, in terms of numbers, banks and credit unions granted more installment loans by (+67.6%), credit cards by (+36.8%) and loans cash by (+12.3%)” – informed BIK.

– January’s growth dynamics in terms of numbers by 12.3 percent, and in terms of value by 15.0 percent confirm the good economic situation on the cash loan market. For a full assessment of the situation, it should be taken into account that we show dynamics in terms of value based on nominal sales. However, when we use the real approach, taking into account inflation, the dynamics of the increase in the value of cash loans is worse, and is even negative at the level of about -2 percent – pointed out prof. Rogowski.

He also added: – Analyzing the cash loan market, taking into account the amount ranges of the financing granted, we observe an interesting phenomenon. Loans taken out in excess of PLN 50,000 are noteworthy, with the highest positive growth dynamics, both in terms of numbers (+20.5 percent) and value (+23.7 percent). Interestingly, this phenomenon occurred in 2021, when the highest positive growth dynamics concerned high-value loans.

Main photo source: Photocon / Shutterstock

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