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Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Local elections 2024. PiS loses the assemblies

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The Civic Coalition won three assemblies from the hands of Law and Justice – this is according to the Ipsos exit poll results. The change of government will most likely take place in the Lower Silesian, Silesian and Masovian voivodeships. And if Third Way and the Civic Coalition cooperate, the government may also change in the Łódź Voivodeship.

The Civic Coalition won in ten voivodeships: Lower Silesia, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Lubuskie, Masovia, Opole, Pomerania, Silesia, Warmian-Masurian, Greater Poland and West Pomeranian. In the Silesian and Masovian voivodeships, KO's advantage over PiS is minimal, but if we assume that Trzecia Droga enters into coalition with KO, this advantage increases significantly.

Law and Justice won in six voivodeships: Lublin, Łódź, Lesser Poland, Podkarpackie, Podlaskie and Świętokrzyskie. Thus, Jarosław Kaczyński's party lost its majority in three voivodeships. In four of them (Lubelskie, Podlasie, Podkarpacie and Świętokrzyskie), PiS's victory is unquestionable. In the Łódź region it may turn out to be pyrrhic – because there a majority will probably be built by a coalition of KO and Third Way.

Theoretically, this could also happen in Małopolska. But everything will be decided there until the very end of vote counting.

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Lower Silesia retaken

According to Ipsos poll results, the Civic Coalition won 36.2 percent in the Lower Silesian Voivodeship. votes. PiS is in second place with a result that is 10 percentage points worse. Third place was taken by Trzecia Droga, which won 11.7%.

In 2018, candidates from the Law and Justice Committee had the majority in the regional assembly (28.5 percent of votes), ahead of candidates from KO (25.8 percent).

PiS loses the assemblies

Change in the province Silesian

We move on to the Silesian Voivodeship, where the candidates from KO also turned out to be the best, collecting 33.9%. votes. Candidates running from the lists of Jarosław Kaczyński's party took second place with 30.6%. votes. The podium is also closed by Trzecia Droga (9.3%). This result means that KO and Trzecia Droga have a total of 43.2%. votes, i.e. a stable majority. And yet mandates for the Left are still possible.

Read also: Local elections 2024. PiS wins in the country, but loses the assemblies. The Civic Coalition gains

During the last elections, Law and Justice won 22 seats in the 45-seat assembly. The Civic Coalition had 20 councilors, SLD two, and PSL one.

Mazovia is no longer PiS

The Civic Coalition also overtook PiS in the province. Masovian Voivodeship, although in 2018 the candidates of this party had to acknowledge the superiority of their rivals.

According to Ipsos, KO won 33 percent here. votes. Law and Justice has 32.4 percent of them. The difference is small, but third road achieved an excellent result in Mazovia. The party of Szymon Hołownia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz ends the election race with 17.1 percent. votes. KO and Trzecia Droga together have as much as 50.1%. votes.

What did it look like in 2018? Then 34.04 percent PiS won the votes, 27.66%. voters supported KO. PSL ended the elections with 13.15 percent. votes.

Łódź: everything is possible

Law and Justice turned out to be better in the Łódź Voivodeship and won 35.6 percent. votes. However, this does not mean that it will be able to continue to rule.

The Civic Coalition won – according to Ipsos – 31.4 percent. votes and their coalition partner from the Sejm, Trzecia Droga, has 12.9 percent. votes. This means that the current ruling coalition may take power in this voivodeship – if it manages to reach an agreement – it is possible.

Małopolskie: everything will be decided at the very end

PiS's victory in Małopolska is not yet certain. Although Jarosław Kaczyński's party achieved an excellent result of 42.3%. votes. But the combined forces of KO and Third Path have a total of 39.8 percent. If it turned out that the difference would shrink even further and the Left would also manage to win a mandate, it may turn out that PiS would also lose power in Małopolska. However, this is an unlikely scenario.

Main photo source: PAP

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