Sky Sports activities Racing’s Australian skilled Tim Carroll assesses each runner within the Melbourne Cup – watch Flemington’s Group 1 characteristic stay on Sky Sports activities Racing at 4am on Tuesday, with protection commencing at 11pm on Monday.
1. GOLD TRIP
Jockey: James McDonald | Coach: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained seven-year-old shall be making an attempt to turn out to be the primary horse for the reason that nice Makybe Diva in 2005 to go back-to-back within the race. He’s following the identical path as final yr, successful the Turnbull Stakes with a barnstorming last-to-first end, adopted by a superb third within the Caulfield Cup and an equally spectacular efficiency within the Cox Plate, when tapped for toe and crushed simply over a size. Solely Possibly Diva has been in a position to carry the identical weight to victory since 1975 and common rider Mark Zahra has opted to experience With out A Combat as a substitute, however he does acquire the providers of James McDonald and clearly thrives on the big format of Flemington.
Damien Oliver | Michael Moroney
Former William Haggas inmate who had the likes of State Of Relaxation and Lord North in behind when successful the Tattersalls Cup in Eire final yr, however he has proven little or no in 5 Australian begins. He’s a whole unknown over this journey and whereas it might be a feelgood fairytale to see one of many all-time nice Australian jockeys in Damien Oliver experience the winner in his final Melbourne Cup, it seems unlikely.
3. WITHOUT A FIGHT
Mark Zahra | Anthony and Sam Freedman
Though properly crushed on this final yr when with Simon and Ed Crisford in what was his solely attempt at this journey, he’s a two-time winner at York over 1m 6f which, like Flemington, is a flat, left-handed observe. He regarded sensible when successful twice through the Winter Carnival in Brisbane earlier than making a flat-footed return over 1m 1f within the Underwood, however he was then sensational when exploding down the centre of the observe to win a stacked Caulfield Cup. No horse has accomplished the Cup double in the identical yr since Ethereal in 2001, however the Caulfield Cup remains to be thought of the most effective trial for this race and Mark Zahra jumps off final yr’s winner to maintain the partnership intact.
Kohei Matsuyama | Tatsuya Yoshioka
Japan final received this race in 2007 with Delta Blues, however this fellow seems a stay probability after a stable effort within the Caulfield Cup. He met hassle over the concluding phases that day however was not going anyplace on the time. Nevertheless, that was his first run since June, and the Melbourne Cup has at all times been the plan. Given his second-up file reads three wins from six goes, he ought to come on loads for the run, and the final time he went over this journey he was not crushed far when fourth within the spring version of the Tenno Sho, which is a significantly good 2m race.
Ryan Moore | Willie Mullins
The Willie Mullins-trained five-year-old will go into the race having not been seen since August, when successful the Ballyroan at Naas in good type. Nevertheless, it was his romp within the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot when he had steady companion, and subsequent Ebor winner, Absurde over seven lengths in arrears that set tongues wagging. He seems well-weighted in contrast to a couple different Europeans who’ve come down for this race, and the experiences from Melbourne have been Positive. He often likes to go ahead, so the attract stall three is right, and with Ryan Moore flying in for the experience, there are many causes to assume he can turn out to be the primary successful favorite since Fiorente in 2013.
Joao Moreira | Chris Waller
The son of Frankel was a straightforward winner of the Melrose Handicap for William Haggas final yr earlier than being bought and despatched to Chris Waller. He has loads of expertise and possesses a critical flip of foot, however he has been his personal worst enemy just lately when falling out of the stalls on his final two begins, together with final time when he blew the beginning by six lengths within the Caulfield Cup, which noticed him badly out of place earlier than being crushed somewhat over three lengths. Waller has taken the blinkers off in an effort to make sure he breaks cleanly, and ‘Magic Man’ Joao Moreira is booked, however he wants to leap properly to make sure he doesn’t find yourself buried from a low draw.
Zac Purton | Willie Mullins
Seems to be the Willie Mullins second choose, however he did win the Ebor at York from the very exterior draw when final seen, which historically has been a stable kind line for this, and it’s value noting that was the primary time he had run on agency floor. He was over seven lengths behind Vauban at Royal Ascot, who he meets on 4lb higher phrases right here, however this can be a journey he’ll relish, and he does have what seems to be a beneficial draw.
8. RIGHT YOU ARE
John Allen | Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
A real sort who’s helpful on his day, with 10 wins subsequent to his identify, and ran a pleasant race to complete fifth, not crushed far, when final seen within the Caulfield Cup. Nevertheless, he’s a seven-year-old having his first begin past a mile and a half in 27 makes an attempt, and though he’s in excellent arms, he needs to be an enormous threat at this journey.
9. VOW AND DECLARE
Billy Egan | Danny O’Brien
Traces up for his fourth Melbourne Cup having received the race in 2019, and though he doesn’t do lots of successful, he has regarded rejuvenated just lately, working with loads of advantage to complete runner-up on his final two begins. He ran properly sufficient on this race final yr when lower than 9 lengths behind the winner in a well-strung-out end, and he has much less weight to hold this time round. Solely three eight-year-olds have received this race, though Twilight Cost did obtain the feat three years in the past, and his one win from his final 25 begins is hardly inspiring, however he’s trustworthy and, on his present kind, is value contemplating for any exotics.
Michael Dee | Kris Lees
This horse has been scratched on vets’ recommendation.
Kerrin McEvoy | Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
What an unbelievable story it might be if the Ciaran Maher and David Eustace-trained eight-year-old might simply hit the body, not to mention win the race. He was as soon as a promising stayer in France earlier than working higher than midfield within the 2020 Melbourne Cup for Andreas Wahler, however then didn’t see the racetrack for practically three years. He has now had three runs again and snuck into the race when inserting within the Geelong Cup final month, and whereas this can demand way more, in addition to requiring a modern-day coaching miracle, he carries no weight, with three-time Melbourne Cup-winning rider Kerrin McEvoy choosing up the experience.
12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR
Daniel Stackhouse | Phillip Stokes
A former Kiwi that hasn’t been positioned in his final 9 begins, which is hardly interesting, however he ran sixth on this final yr when coming from properly again and now steps as much as a visit he enjoys. He is solely had three goes over 2m; successful the Adelaide Cup, ending positioned in a Sydney Cup, and the aforementioned run on this race final yr. He seems a tad brief on class, however he has no weight on his again and given that is prone to be run at an excellent, trustworthy gallop, he is certainly not the worst outsider within the discipline.
13. OKITA SOUSHI
Dylan Gibbons | Joseph P O’Brien
Joseph O’Brien has received this race twice in a brief time frame and this fellow has received over the journey at Dundalk, which implies he deserves at the very least some respect. He needed to be snagged again from a excessive draw within the Caulfield Cup, a situation that appears probably once more right here, however he ought to at the very least get a stable gallop to intention at, which is able to assist. Nevertheless, he was crushed 10 lengths within the Caulfield Cup, with a number of of those properly clear, and it’s troublesome to see why he’ll flip the shape round, even over this longer journey.
Beau Mertens | Chris Waller
A son of Sea The Stars who was a Stakes winner in his native France however has failed to fireplace since becoming a member of Chris Waller, going winless in 12 begins. His latest kind merely is just not adequate for this, and his three finest efforts since arriving in Australia, together with when runner-up in a Sydney Cup, have come on testing floor. There’s a little bit of rain forecast round race day however Flemington drains properly, and he would wish bottomless floor to enter calculations.
Craig Williams | Mick Value and Michael Kent Jr
Having her first begin in Australia for Mick Value and Michael Kent, this five-year-old French mare is actually one of many extra intriguing runners within the race. She doesn’t have lots of dimension about her, which is a detrimental as this tends to be a race with loads of hustle and bustle, however she does keep and was a winner over the same journey when final seen at ParisLongchamp in September. She has received her final two runs when coming back from comparable breaks; nevertheless, all her wins have come on rain-effected floor.
16. MAGICAL LAGOON
Mark Du Plessis | Chris Waller
Gained the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot after which the Irish Oaks on the Curragh final yr, however she has proven nothing in 5 begins since becoming a member of Chris Waller. Until a step as much as 2m for the primary time brings about loads of enchancment, which seems extremely unlikely given she has been going ahead however puncturing over shorter journeys, it’s inconceivable to see why she shall be concerned.
17. MILITARY MISSION
Rachel King | Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
He seems a bit beneath the highest horses right here, however he has no weight on his again and arrives in fine condition with wins in each the Newcastle Cup and Herbet Energy from his final three begins. Each these races are over a mile and a half and he has by no means been past that journey, however there may be loads of stamina in his pedigree and he gives the look he’ll keep, arriving prepared and match after 5 spins main in.
Jye McNeil | Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
Epsom Derby winner who has solely managed to win one in all his 12 begins since arriving in Australia, and that was a handicap in Brisbane. To be truthful, he has not been too dangerous just lately, ending within the high 4 in all three begins this marketing campaign. I do not assume 2m sees him at his finest, although, and he was beating panels on this final yr, however he does carry much less weight this time round and is completely drawn in stall one, given they’re prone to wish to experience him ahead.
19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
Craig Newitt | Liam Howley
Unimaginable to have on latest kind and has not likely accomplished something since ending runner-up within the ATC Derby in April, though that was on a heavy observe the place loads failed to fireplace. He’s having his first transcend the prolonged mile and a half and did give the impression he would keep when luckless within the Bart Cummings right here final month, however he has loads to search out with most of those.
20. MORE FELONS
Jamie Kah | Chris Waller
Previously with Milton Harris (when generally known as Scriptwriter), he was properly held by Vauban at Royal Ascot and completed unplaced behind Absurde, although not crushed far, within the Ebor. On European kind, he seems up towards it, however he was an attention grabbing fifth within the Geelong Cup on his Australian debut when carving out the quickest closing sectionals of the race. He does have a difficult draw to beat too (stall 24), however he goes from in the direction of the foot of the handicap and now meets each Vauban and Absurde on much better phrases, so he wouldn’t be the worst each-way play.
21. FUTURE HISTORY
Hollie Doyle | Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
French import who has gone from a benchmark 78 handicap in June to a Melbourne Cup, and the five-year-old shall be a primary experience within the race for Hollie Doyle. He received the Bart Cummings right here in October earlier than a robust effort to complete positioned within the Moonee Valley Cup final day trip, when ridden the wrong way up from the excessive draw. This shall be his first attempt on the journey, however he seems like he’ll take pleasure in going over additional and, though this represents his acid check, might run a cheeky race with no weight on his again.
Teodore Nugent | Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Former Aidan O’Brien inmate who received three on the bounce in Eire earlier than working fourth within the 2021 St Leger. Failed to complete on this final yr and others look higher. Nevertheless, he did win the Bendigo Cup on his most up-to-date begin and, whereas that kind is questionable, the winner of final yr’s Bendigo Cup, Excessive Emocean, went on to complete third on this final yr for a similar coach.
Zac Lloyd | Kris Lees
Having his first go on the journey, however he’s a little bit of a one-pace sort who ought to take pleasure in going over 2m. He made it into the Cup by successful the Archer Stakes on the weekend and carries 13lb much less right here. Nevertheless, Saturday’s race become a sit and dash, during which he bought away with a gentle lead, and he won’t get that luxurious at this stage.
24. TRUE MARVEL
Ben Thompson | Matthew A Smith
A veteran stayer who does benefit from the journey, however he seems outclassed on this discipline. Failed to fireplace just lately, together with his solely win in practically two years being a maiden hurdle at Hamilton in Could, and that’s merely not adequate to land a blow right here.
The Caulfield Cup is the race that gives the most effective native kind, and if we principally consider runners from that race earlier than together with the worldwide contenders, we must always be capable of discover some successful bets. The boldness behind Vauban jogs my memory of two years in the past when Incentivise was being touted as untouchable earlier than ending a gallant second to the sensible mare Verry Elleegant. Willie Mullins’ five-year-old seems a beast, and the race maps strongly from a low draw, however I might have appreciated to have seen a lead-up earlier than stepping into on the present costs, thus I’ve regarded elsewhere for some worth.
Soulcombe could be a play if we knew he would go away the stalls cleanly, however there’s a large threat he finally ends up buried if he doesn’t break on the bell. Gold Journey has been in career-best kind this season and he’ll get a robust gallop to intention at, so there may be loads to love, however in what seems a robust renewal, it won’t be simple to take this out from the highest of the handicap. Absurde was properly held by Vauban at Royal Ascot, however he’ll take pleasure in going over 2m and it seems like he’s going to get his excellent situations.
WITHOUT A FIGHT completed strongly to win the Caulfield Cup and there’s no motive, aside from historic pointers, to assume he won’t go near finishing the double. The runner-up that day doesn’t line up, that means the choice was properly away from a number of of those in what is well the most effective native kind lead-up, with the selection of Mark Zahra having run via the road with loads of objective.
1. WITHOUT A FIGHT
4. GOLD TRIP
Extra Felons / Daqiansweet Junior
Watch the Lexus Melbourne Cup from Flemington stay on Sky Sports activities Racing at 4am on Tuesday with protection commencing at 11pm on Monday.