The ruling coalition 1.5 years ago came to power with the promises of “accelerating energy transformation”, the behavior of the most valuable forests and strengthening nature protection. These have been fulfilled to a small extent so far.
We have heard about many of them that “work is underway” and it takes time. And it was not difficult to read from delays that the coalition was waiting for the election and the new president from his political camp. Karol Nawrocki, supported by PiS, won the election. The future president is new in the world of politics and it is difficult to say what – and or at all – he has plans in climate and the environment. But at rallies and debates he proved himself as a supporter rod and opponent of green order. And above all, the sharp opponent of the government who would most likely lead to his fall and new choices.
In such conditions, it is difficult to expect that even with urgently needed changes – Like those in wind energy – The ruling majority will be able to count on his favor. On the other hand, experience shows that “Return to Coal”, which “Poland is at 200 years” to promise politicians – and later reality goes on its path.
Green order on censored
Climate policy and green order were in these elections – and especially in the second round – an unwanted child. Only Magdalena Biejat, who obtained 4.2 percent, actually spoke positively about it. votes in the first round. Rafał Trzaskowski tried – passing into the truth – to convince that “green order is gone”.
Nawrocki says that “the ideology of green order will destroy our farms our forests.” And he declared: “I will reject the green order, as the future Polish president I will announce a referendum in this matter.”
Not only in Polish but also European politics, climate issues have lost (un) former splendor. Even 5 years ago, the main political options went to elections with slogans of climate protection. This brought results. Europe not only adopted an ambitious climate policy and according to the latest estimates Brussels We are on the right track to cut off greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent. until 2030. And this despite the fact that some politicians turned away from the green order they had previously supported.
But now the EU must decide on the purpose of reducing the emission on 2040, which According to scientists, it should be 90-95 percent. The European Commission is trying to divorce him, and this may not be enough for EU countries to agree to him. Nawrocki's win will add Wind in sails to opponents of climate policy in the EU. The referendum he announced has poor chances Good luckand even if it happened and if the majority voted for rejecting the green order, it is difficult to say what it would mean. Poland cannot “unsubscribe” from the provisions in force in the Union. We can either strive to change them – which requires most of the EU forum – or leave the Union.
Black gold?
What if not green order and energy transformation? Nawrocki did not show plans for energy in the campaign, but repeated the slogan: “Polish coal fed, bring out and develop the Polish Republic.” The future president managed to equate the “most difficult” energy source with development.
According to Nawrocki, “black gold” should be the basis of our energy until the transition to atomic energy, and only the renewable sources can be seen as an addition. It is a matter on the head, because even according to PiS plans, nuclear power plants would be responsible in the future for covering a dozen or so percent of our power demand in the 1940s.
As President Nawrocki, of course, there is no direct translation into energy policy – the government is still responsible for it. But its implementation also depends on the acts adopted, as long as the change of regulations regarding wind turbines. And such an act, if the Sejm finally accepts it, the president may veto it.
Your policy, and your reality
However, can Nawrocki really slow down, but even reverse the direction of energy transformation in Poland? Andrzej Duda said about the fact that we have “at 200 years”. He promised that he could not “slaughter Polish mining”. – Meanwhile, for a decade in which he exercised power, the participation of coal in electricity production fell by 19 percent. – notes Paweł Czyżak, an analyst from the Think-Energy Embe. Constantly Carbon extraction is also falling.
According to analysts, renewable energy sources will continue to be developed in Poland, because the economic account and energy security of the country speak for this. Coal energy production will fall. But this does not mean that it does not matter who is in the Presidential Palace. Michał Smoleń from the Instrat Foundation points out that “on the quality of cooperation of the ruling coalition and the new president” it will depend on whether we will be able to move away from coal “” go in an orderly, with full use of economic opportunities “.
Who is behind nature?
From the perspective of nature protection, it is disturbing that when Nawrocki and the Right talk about “rejecting the green order”, they do not mean only literally green order (i.e. a set of politicians adopted by the EU after 2019). Other European, Polish and activities for climate and environmental protection mix in general.
In terms of energy, global market processes and mechanisms may prove stronger than the political promises of coal defense. This was the case for 10 years of Andrzej Duda's rule and it may be similar during the presidency of Karol Nawrocki.
But it is difficult to count on the market to take over forests, wolves, wild birds, alive measles and Vistula, after the Białowieża and Carpathian Forest. On the contrary, business sees in them most often resources for use or difficulties for activities. We do not know Nawrocki's views on many of these issues, but looking at his statements about the green head and the attitude of his political environment – it is difficult to assume that he will support increased protection of nature. It is equally difficult to count on supporting initiatives in the field of animal rights, such as a ban on fur farming. Unlike Trzaskowski Nawrocki He didn't even answer the questions on fur farming, animal well -being and other matters dealt by organizations fighting for animal rights.
Even worse, losses for nature can be irreversible from the perspective of our lives. When during PiS's rule Harwestry entered the Białowieża Forest, and the forest guard stopped protesting activists, everything happened quickly. Almost 200,000 trees were cut out in a short time. Today – thanks to the efforts of environmentalists and court judgments – the clippings are stopped, the forest is reborn, but in our lives we will not see 80- or 100 -year -old trees in these places.
The current coalition is disappointing voters who care about nature – but for 1.5 years the swallows of changes have shown, such as new reserves or a breakthrough on the National Park on the Oder. Now Nawrocki may hinder the continuation of these changes. And in a few years we can deal with a government again, which will want to cut the most valuable forests, allow hunting for wolves, will strive for rivers with harmful dams. All such losses for nature would be – from our perspective – virtually irreversible.