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NBP interest rates. Forecasts by economists Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, PKO BP and mBank

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The Monetary Policy Council will slow down the pace of tightening the monetary policy, in June it will decide to raise by 50 basis points – forecast analysts Morgan Stanley. Experts from Goldman Sachs expect a bigger rate hike – according to them, the Council will raise the main reference rate by 75 basis points. On the other hand, according to PKO Research analysts, the increase may amount to even one hundred basis points.

In the report by Morgan Stanley it was written that “the NBP will slow down the pace of further monetary policy tightening to a 50bp hike at the upcoming meeting, with the risk of a move by 75bp”. “At the same time, we expect the Council to announce in its communiqué that it will continue tightening as long as it is inflation will grow. We expect interest rates to peak at 7.00% in September or October this year. There is little room for interest rate cuts in 2023 “- we read.

NBP reference ratePAP / Maciej Zieliński

Interest rates – forecasts

“At the May meeting, the NBP slowed down the pace of tightening to 75 bp from 100 bp in April, highlighting concerns about growth and signaling further tightening” – added.

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“Since then, data on growth and inflation continued to surprise upwards compared to NBP forecasts, but detailed data revealed a deterioration in the structure of economic growth and a slower rise in core inflation. Comments from MPC members point to a continuation of the rate hike cycle, but recent comments of the president Glapiński suggest that that it will be done at a more cautious pace “- it was written.

However, according to Goldman Sachs, the Council will raise the main reference rate by 75 basis points to the level of 6.00 percent. This would be the highest level since June 2008. According to Goldman Sachs, interest rates will ultimately reach 7.00% this year.

The economists of mBank are also expecting an increase by 75 basis points. On the other hand, according to PKO Research analysts, the increase may amount to even one hundred basis points.

Interest rates and inflation in Poland

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for June 8.

During the meeting in May, the Monetary Policy Council decided to an increase in interest rates by 75 basis points. The reference rate increased to 5.25%.

On Tuesday, the Central Statistical Office announced in a preliminary estimate that in the first quarter of this year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate amounted to 8.5%. Every year. In turn, the prices of consumer goods and services in May 2022 increased by 13.9%. year on year, and compared to the previous month they increased by 1.7%.

Inflation in PolandPAP

Main photo source: Capital Tourism Bureau



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