The most important data about the labor market: “Mediocre since the beginning of the year employment decreased by 60 thousand full-time positions; almost 2x stronger than a year earlier; they are responsible for 1/2 of this decline employment changes in industry; average employment is still higher than at any point before 2022, although lower than in 2022-2023,” experts from Pekao. They emphasized that they expected an upcoming “cooling” in the market.
November surprise: Although the situation is not ideal, this past month analysts were supposed to be positively surprised, when – compared to October – employment in Poland increased by 5 thousand people. An additional aspect was the fact that it was recorded acceleration of wage growth with 10.2 percent up to 10.5 percent year to year. “If the November wage growth rate after seasonality was maintained throughout the year, then… wage dynamics would reach 11 percent. y/y” – assumed in the analysis.
Forecasts for improvement? The experts further admitted that “the scale of the positive surprise is small and does not change the poor employment picture this year (2024 – ed.). Unfortunately, the economic situation in Poland is expected to be poor, and companies are increasingly to suspend recruitment. “We don't expect it rapid improvement of the situation in this regard,” concluded Pekao analysts. It should also be recalled that despite economists' forecasts (a decrease of 0.2%) in November production in Poland decreased by 1.5 percent year to year.
More on this topic they wrotein the article: “Polish industry disappointed. The decline is stronger than expected. Poor data from the Central Statistical Office“.
Sources: Pekao's analyzes on X, pekao.com.pl