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Saturday, September 18, 2021

Oil prices. Goldman Sachs analysts’ forecasts

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According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the coming months may be marked by significant fluctuations in oil prices. As experts emphasize, prices will be shaped more by the supply side than the demand side. This is due, inter alia, to a slight increase in production in the OPEC + countries.

“The reduction in Chinese oil demand caused by the Delta variant has been largely offset by positive surprises from European, South American and Indian nations,” Goldman Sachs said in Wednesday’s oil price forecast.

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Oil prices – forecasts

GS analysts indicate that the demand for oil from regions of the world other than China means that the global demand for this commodity has decreased only slightly. In their opinion, in the next two months it will remain at the level of 97.8 mb / d, compared to 98.4 mb / d earlier.

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The forecast indicated that oil prices will be driven more by the supply side than the demand side. This is due to a slight increase in production in the OPEC + countries, the lack of prospects for launching exports from Iran in the near future and the discipline of shale gas producers.

“As a result, GS analysts expect the deficit to remain stable in the short term and Brent crude oil to reach USD 80 / bbl in 4Q21. At the same time, GS economists warn that the coming months may be marked by significant oil price fluctuations,” Goldman Sachs forecast.

Fuel prices go up

Fuel at the stations is clearly more expensive than last year, which drives inflation in Poland. In July and June, the prices of raw materials grew at a double-digit pace, however, everything indicates that with a similar situation we will have dealing also in the following months.

– If prices remain at the current level, above PLN 5.50, we can talk about year-on-year increases by the middle of next year – points out Urszula Cieślak from the Reflex Brokerage House in an interview with TVN24 Biznes. According to Leszek Wiwawa, the president of the Polish Organization of Oil Industry and Trade, one should not be afraid of exceeding the limit of PLN 6 per liter of gasoline and diesel oil.

Main photo source: Shutterstock



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