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Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Oil prices. Goldman Sachs raises its forecast

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Investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month forecast for Brent crude oil prices from $93 to $100 a barrel. Record demand combined with OPEC extending production restrictions were cited as the main reasons.

As Goldman Sachs reminds in Wednesday’s analysis, these two factors pushed the price of Brent up by 30%. from the end of June. Significantly lower supply from OPEC and high demand outweigh higher oil production USA. The bank estimates that next year OPEC will be able to keep the Brent price in the range of $80-105. per barrel, using, among others, strong growth in demand in Asia, estimated at an additional 1.8 million barrels per day.

The bank does not expect the USD 105 limit to be broken permanently

It is true that, according to Goldman Sachs, Saudi Arabia will gradually withdraw from its own production cut of 1 million barrels per day, but the restrictions agreed within OPEC+, amounting to 1.7 million barrels per day, will remain in force throughout next year. Goldman Sachs lowered its average forecast for next year’s production by PLN 900,000. barrels per day, pointing to three main causes. Saudi Arabia seems determined to reduce its own stockpiles, OPEC production cuts will help Riyadh’s revenue targets for next year, and finally, U.S. production growth somewhat mitigates the impact of OPEC cuts.

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The bank therefore assumes that it is unlikely that the Brent price will permanently exceed USD 105 in 2024. per barrel.

Main photo source: RachenStocker/Shutterstock

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