The lack of support for the head of the German government during the confidence vote was expected, and this is exactly what happened. The end of Olaf Scholz as Chancellor of Germany means opening the way to early parliamentary elections in this country. The leaders of the government coalition had already reached an agreement with the opposition regarding Monday's vote. We know what this pre-election path will look like now.
Olaf Scholz leaves. The German economy is in terrible shape
Recall that Olaf Scholz's office became a minority when the Chancellor expelled the Finance Minister from the government in November. The leader of the liberals was followed by two more ministers from the FDP, and only politicians remained in the government SPD and the Greens. These parties currently occupy third and fourth place in polls. The Christian Democrats have the highest ratings CDU/CSU and the extreme Alternative for Germanyc. In what condition does Scholz leave Germany and, above all, the economy? According to Bloomberg “Europe's largest economy entered the path of recession and the effects may be irreversible.” “After five years of stagnation, the German economy is now 5 percent lower. smaller than it would be if the pre-pandemic growth trend had continued,” we read. The problems are largely caused by the loss of cheap energy from Russia, and giants such as e.g. Volkswagen or Mercedes cannot keep up with the competitiveness of Chinese car companies.
“Nothing has been resolved.” Germany is facing a huge crisis
“The decline in national competitiveness means that each household is about EUR 2,500 worse off per year,” Bloomberg emphasizes. – It's a very slow, very long decline. Not a company, not a city, but the entire country, and with it Europe – says Amy Webb, founder and head of the Future Today Institute. The media adds that Germany is in huge trouble just when the rest of Europe needs their “industrial strength to help the region keep pace with China, deal with Russia's war in Ukraine and respond to increasingly isolationist United States“Meanwhile, Germany is facing its biggest crisis since reunification.
According to Dr. Konrad Popławski from the Center for Eastern Studies Olaf Scholz was not up to the task of thoroughly reforming the economy. The expert adds that it is true that the Chancellor acted at a difficult moment “because few experts, maybe apart from the American ones, expected a Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the problems that were known about were not addressed to a sufficient extent.” The Next.gazeta.pl interlocutor mentions the main problems that Scholz's cabinet failed to cope with include: improving infrastructurewhich since Angela Merkel “has been severely neglected”, among others through the “faulty design of the so-called budget brake”.
Scholz tried to solve this issue with extra-budgetary funds, but this issue was blocked by the Constitutional Tribunal due to too high a lack of transparency. There are also no sufficient social restrictions due to the fact that German competitiveness is falling dramatically
– says Next.gazeta.pl expert. In his opinion, German “enterprises need a breather, and there is no way to solve the issue prices energy. – It turned out that the model involving more and more energy import from Russia after the invasion is impossible and that's where it came from many new pockets of problems in the German economy. There is no sign that any of the major challenges have been resolved to any extent, he adds.
Can Germany return to nuclear power? This is what is important for Poland now
According to Dr. Konrad Popławski, from the Polish perspective, “the most important issue is the stability of the German energy system.”
What we see in December, i.e. the so-called dunkelflaute – the co-occurrence of light gusts of wind and simultaneous cloud cover – makes the German system very unstable and triggers instability outside. This leads to very high energy prices not only in our continental Europe, but also in Scandinavia. So much so that Norway is considering restricting exports to Europe, which would have tragic consequences
– says the expert. – Honestly, I don't see any other way out restoring nuclear energy in Germanybut I don't really see brave people who would be ready to say, looking the public in the eye, that it's our idea Energiewende messed up and that without nuclear energy, given current technologies and in the current geopolitical situation, we will not be able to cope – adds Dr. Konrad Popławski.
Debureaucratization of the European Union
According to our interlocutor, another important issue for Poland on the occasion of the new elections in Germany would be ““debureaucratization of the EU system”. The expert emphasizes that Germans are co-responsible for the bureaucracy in the EU because “they hold key positions in Brussels and they imposed their bureaucratic system on the entire EU.” – In turn, in this system innovation is very poor. Companies are moving out of Europe – we do not have competitive energy prices or labor costs, but the way in which matters are handled in the state administration and the availability of capital for innovation are poor – said Dr. Konrad Popławski.
Olaf Scholz leaves. What's next?
What will the next steps on the path to early elections in Germany look like now? Chancellor dismissed will send a request to the President of Germany to dissolve the Bundestag. Frank-Walter Steinmeier he may do it on Monday and announce the calling of elections at the same time. In accordance with the statutory requirements and arrangements of the largest parties, the elections would take place on February 23. This means that the usually apolitical Christmas and New Year period will this time be the beginning of the official election campaign in Germany. Parties have already started presenting their programs and announcing candidates for chancellor.