In the face of the demographic crisis, the quality of public services for families with children should be improved and the network of kindergartens and nurseries should be developed. It is also worth considering the reform of family benefits, experts say. According to them, the retirement age of women and men should also be equalized.
According to the Central Statistical Office, Poland has entered a period of demographic crisis. Forecasts show that by 2060, Poland's population will decrease by 6.7 million and amount to 30.9 million, and half of our country's inhabitants will be over 50 years old. On the other hand UN predicts that Poland's population will decrease to approximately 19 million by 2100.
Reasons for the decreasing population in Poland
Experts indicate that the decreasing population is influenced by several phenomena, including: persistent low fertility rate. According to the Central Statistical Office, the so-called the state of birth depression has lasted for almost 30 years. Since 1990, the fertility rate has been below two, which means that it does not guarantee simple generation replacement.
Another reason for population decline is departure of people from the post-war boom generation demographic. In Poland, since 2013, the number of deaths exceeds the number of births.
Director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography of the Warsaw School of Economics, prof. Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak in an interview with PAP pointed out that in the case of demographic changes, it is very difficult to mitigate anything.
– Forecasts show that if we maintain the current system of transfers and public services, in the long run our wages will not be enough to pay for it all. This certainly needs to change so as not to limit the country's social and economic development opportunities. After all, we want life in Poland to become better and better, she emphasized.
What's next for 800 plus?
In recent months, discussion has been sparked by the report of the Council of Ministers on the implementation of the Act on 500 plus over 7 years (2016-2023). The government's analysis shows that the program had a limited impact on fertility. Questions then arose about its further operation.
According to prof. Chłoń-Domińczak, it is worth continuing to invest in supporting families. – However, I would like to point out that the main role of family benefits is not to encourage people to have or give birth to children. It is more about supporting families, especially those with a lower socio-economic status. It is an investment in children, supporting their development, reducing the risk of poverty, because these are problems that a large number of families in Poland still struggle with, she noted.
She noted that 500 plus has significantly reduced poverty among families, especially large families. – This is a great value that should be maintained. The question, however, is whether solutions should be introduced that will limit access to the benefit for the richest families, the professor said.
Dominik Owczarek from the Institute of Public Affairs assessed that the family benefits system requires reform. – We should consider how to establish reasonable proportions between a very generous benefit and a benefit that is costly to the state budget. 800 plusand family benefits, which are largely dependent on household income – noted the expert.
Currently, family benefits range from PLN 95 to PLN 135. According to the expert, they should be increased noticeably as soon as possible.
“Perhaps – contrary to our imagination – we are not a child-friendly society.”
According to Owczarek, another problem is the stigmatization of families with children. – Perhaps – contrary to our imagination – we are not a child-friendly society. We don't accept these children very well either. There are more and more restaurants, hotels and other service outlets that offer the so-called hours without children. There are also negative reactions to children in the media. As if they were not full members of our society, he said.
According to the expert, activities should be carried out that will create a “good atmosphere around families.” – Maybe the Ministry of Family should create a social campaign that would not only promote parenthood, but also an understanding view of children's parents – he noted.
He also pointed out that a woman often feels lonely and isolated after giving birth to a child. – That's why it's worth building clubs for parents of small children, for example. Some local governments are already doing this, said the expert.
Moreover, he added, the state should continue to focus on improving the quality of public services for people deciding to have a child.
Consequences of the demographic crisis
The demographic crisis is also related to the decreasing number of employees. Tomasz Lasocki from the Faculty of Law and Administration of the University of Warsaw pointed out that the answer to this challenge may be migration, technological changes and increased labor efficiency.
– In terms of education and continuing education, we are in the second half of Europe. We have as many children as we have, we won't have any more, so let's at least try to teach them as best as we can how to navigate this world efficiently, Lasocki pointed out.
He explained that this included, among others: to make knowledge of foreign languages a standard, but also to skillfully use artificial intelligence and automation, which can improve work efficiency.
“If it were up to me, the retirement age would be at least equal to 65”
According to the expert, it is also important to equalize the retirement age for women and men. – If it were up to me, the retirement age would be at least equal to 65 – said Lasocki.
Prof. thinks similarly. Chłoń-Domińczak, who emphasized that it is necessary to equalize the retirement age for women and men. – Today's low retirement age for women discriminates against women. Their benefits are lower than those of men by over a thousand zlotys precisely because they are transferred more quickly retirement and they work shorter hours, she noted. She pointed out that in fact, in all European Union countries, the retirement age for women and men is equal.
– Lately Romania equalized the retirement age, so we are really at the tail end of Europe and a change is clearly needed here – said Prof. Chłoń-Domińczak.
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