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Parliamentary elections 2023 – citizens’ poll. One opposition list or separately? – Kantar study

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Only one list of the opposition gives it a chance to obtain a simple majority in the Sejm, according to a Kantar Public poll commissioned by the Long Table Foundation, which was published on Monday by “Gazeta Wyborcza”.

As “Gazeta Wyborcza” wrote, it is the second poll civil. “In March, the first study showed that the opposition, starting separately, will not be able to defeat Law and Justice (with the Confederation, which has been gaining for weeks). Only one big four-party electoral coalition, which is expected by the majority of supporters of the four, gives the democratic opposition a chance for the offset Jarosław Kaczyński from power,” it said.

“Now Kantar Public examined, commissioned by the Long Table Forum foundation, as in no other polls, because on separate samples of 1,000 respondents – what would happen if the democratic opposition ran in the elections on three lists, and what if it went to the elections united” – wrote “GW”. She added that the study was conducted in mid-June.

Variant A – opposition on three lists

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Law and Justice – 34.4 percent Civic Coalition – 30.8 percent.
Confederation – 10.05 percent Third Way – 7.8 percent. Left – 5.7 percent undecided – 5.5 percent

Mateusz Morawiecki, Adam Bielan, Jaroslaw Kaczyński, Marcin Ociepa and Zbigniew Ziobro PAP/Sebastian Borowski

As “GW” wrote, “the votes of undecided voters were then distributed between parties (on the basis of the question “indicate two or three committees that you are considering”)”. Then the results are as follows:

PiS – 35.3 percent. KO – 31.6 percent Confederation – 11.3 percent. Third Way – 9.3 percent. Left – 6.6 percent

Donald Tusk in WrocławPAP/Tomasz Golla

“GW” added that “at the end, the support of the committees was recalculated, which, after separating the undecided, exceed the electoral threshold”. The daily added that “this distribution is the basis for calculating the number of seats”.

PiS – 37.5 percent. KO – 33.6 percent Confederation – 12 percent. Third Way – 9.9 percent. Left – 7 percent

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Szymon Hołownia at the “Third Way” conventionPAP/Pawel Supernak

Variant B – one opposition list

“Wyborcza” reported that the results in variant B were similarly calculated. After separating undecided voters, in relation to committees that exceed the electoral threshold, the results are as follows:

One opposition list – 48.4 percent. PiS – 34.5 percent. Confederation – 17.1 percent

Krzysztof Bosak at the Confederation conventionPAP/Albert Zawada

Division of seats in variants A and B

“GW” reported that the division of seats in versions A and B was calculated using the method of prof. Jarosław Flis within the mathematical model of the D’Hondt system.

Option A:
PiS – 190 seats KO – 169 seats Confederation – 47 seats Third Way – 35 seats The Left – 19 seats

Arkadiusz Iwaniek, Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus, Magdalena Biejat, Włodzimierz Czarzasty, Katarzyna KotulaSzymon Łabinski/PAP

And this means that PiS, although in relation to this and the previous term, loses 45 seats (it had 235), with the Confederation it would have a majority – 237 seats. The opposition wins a total of 223 seats.

Option B:
Joint opposition list – 232 seats PiS – 159 seats Confederation – 69 seats

Such a distribution of seats means a fragile majority of the opposition in the Sejm.

In the analysis of the results, “Wyborcza” made a reservation that “due to the mismatch between the number of deputies elected in 20 districts and the number of inhabitants (which is favorable for PiS and unfavorable for KO and the Left), the election results may give PiS perhaps 3 seats more than we calculated, and the opposition has so many fewer seats.

Main photo source: PAP/Albert Zawada

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